Barak Obama is going to be the next president of the United States!
Of course it's way to early to tell, so I'm just joking, but the Iowa caucus does give some clue as to how the national election will go.
First Democrats had twice as many supporters attend the caucuses than Republicans did in a state that is about 50-50, so Democrats are more motivated and energized.
I think Obama will quickly solidify support by the Democrats. Hillary was getting a lot of support becasue she seemed "inevitable" and "electable," but now she lost, so she doesn't seem so "inevitable" and "electable" now. Edwards's message is about change like Obama's is, but it has a divisive edge to it that isn't going to work when compared to Obama's message of bringing the country together.
The Republicans are in chaos. Huckabee won in Iowa, but that doesn't help him as much as it hurts other candidates. It weakened Romney to come in second, thank God. Giuliani didn't give Iowa any effort at all, but it still looks horrible to be so far at the bottom. McCain was beat by that joke, Thompson. My feeling is that Huckabee won't last because his support does not extend much past the evengelicals. Thompson can't last because he's basically just a lazy actor. McCain will pick up some steam in New Hampshire, but eventually he will run into the Giuliani firewall in New York, New Jersey, Florida and California. That will weaken McCain, and boost Giuliani, but by that point it may be too late for Giuliani.
Anyway, I think it's going to be a long time before we know who the Republican nominee is going to be, and by the time we do, they will all be damaged by the fight. In the meantime, Obama is going to quickly emerge as the clear front runner for the Dems and is going to have an easy time of building support throughout the primaries and momentum for the general election.
Of course, this theory could all be thrown out the window next week, and the election is nearly a year away, an eternity in politics.