I think a 3rd party could win if they would change the election laws as to how people get there names on the ballots. Kind of hard to win when your name only appears on ballots of 4 states. But they would need someone big as well. Howard Stern as an independent? He got the money, he got a mon-fri talk show, and 2 channels on Sirius dedicated to just him. Maybe not Howard Stern but another Ross Perot to shake things up for the 2 main parties.