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10-26-2006, 06:22 PM #18
Senior Member
U.k Riots against Muslims..what do u think
Originally Posted by WEED_UK
I am very sad to hear that.
But that is exactly what the vividness effect is. To the T.
The vividness effect is the tendency for humans to overrule Probalistic reasoning because of testimonial evidence. The truth is, is that you and everyone else in first world countries are more likely to die because of a car accident. You cannot dispute this it is a fact go look it up if you wish. It amazes me that your family has suffered such tragedy as it is so unlikely (statistically) but non the less it happened.
Any population approximately follows the normal curve (See below). And the center is the average (thus what we should follow). As we can see there are many cases with large deviations from the average. For example my family at one end with no one ever dying from terrorism and your family at the other. These are not representational of the population and thus reality. How about my family I have 4 people who have been seriously injured or killed in a car accident but I understand that isnā??t representational of reality.
So by me saying that you have succumb to the vividness effect Iā??m saying that you may have looked at some stats saying that cars are more dangerous, but you look at your family (testimonial evidence) it overrides your reliance on the statistics (which you should be following)
Iā??ll use the USA as an example because I know the stats
Car accidentsā??300+ per week
Terrorism --- 3000 in 2001 non or little since
--- yet look at their public their fucking terrified of terrorism which is completely irrationalGreat website www.beansandbarley.com
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