I am positive that Obama will win.

In fact, I think it is far more likely that Obama will win with well over 300 electoral votes than it is that McCain could come up with the 270 to win. It may be close in the popular vote, but I think there is a chance of an Electoral College landslide.

In order for McCain to win, he'd have to take all the states Bush won in 2004, some of which are leaning toward Obama, and also sweep all the tossups, many of which show Obama ahead in the polls (just not enough ahead to say they "lean" toward Obama). All the polling shows the race going to Obama.

Probably the only way for McCain to win would be if there are assumptions about the race and the polling that are flat-out wrong, which could be the case. Maybe Obama's ground organization and get-out-the-vote operations are not as strong as everyone thinks. Maybe newly registered and younger voters will not turn out the way everyone thinks. Maybe there is a hidden "Bradley effect" racial factor that hasn't registered in the polls. Maybe the conservatives are more fired-up than they seem. Maybe ALL the undecides will break for McCain. Any one of those things might be true, but it seems to me that they would ALL have to be true for this thing to swing McCain's direction --- the electoral gap is just too big for any one of these factors alone to swing it.

Nothing is for certain until the votes are counted, but I think it will go to Obama.