Quote Originally Posted by dragonrider
In the poll, I said I thought we were in a deep recession that could last a long time. I am certain we are entering at least a normal recession that is part of what I think is a normal business cycle. Ordinarily that would not last very long on its own. But that is not all that is going on. We are also having this credit crisis that is not part of a normal business cycle --- it is an abnormal problem added to the normal recession. The deflation of the housing bubble, the resulting credit crisis, the cyclical recession, the stock market crash, and the huge national debt may all begin to reinforce eachother in bad ways and create a worse economic crisis. I don't think we are headed for another Great Depression (but it is possible). More likely the crisis will not technicaly be a Depression, but it could be severe and could last a long time --- maybe something like the "Lost Decade" in Japan during the 90's.
See, it's the synergy of all these problems (cyclical recession, housing bubble burst, subprime mortgage crisis, stock market volatility, credit crunch, rising unemployment, rising energy costs followed by a "crash" in crude oil prices, increased inflation/decreased buying power of the dollar vs. world markets, and the way the Fed is HEMORRHAGING new money to bail out the lenders) that make me think we're in for some very rough times. Oh I forgot to mention that consumer sentiment is down the drain, too. I mean, look at this poll. The number one answer is "We're completely screwed." Consumer confidence plays a huge role in the economy.

EDIT: I forgot to add one to the list...Credit Card lenders are about to take a shit. That's what I've been reading, lately. Like the economy needs ANOTHER major nail in its coffin.