It's fairly common that when the economy is bad during an election year, the electorate tends to punish the incumbent party. I think most people actually know that most normal business cycle fluctuations in the economy are not due to policies of the government, and definitely not due to a single adminsitrtion or single president. Still, the psychology is to throw out the incumbents when things get bad.

But I think the reason the Republicans face a bigger problem than the normal punishment of the incumbents this year is there are a few things coming into play with this economic meltdown and the election that are bigger than the normal economic factors.

For one thing, the financial crisis is more than a normal business cycle fluctuaion. There was fraud and incompetence involved, so the desire to punish is even stronger -- even if the punishment does not necessarily fall on the people who caused the problem.

Also, people have no faith at all in what they are being told by the government at this point. There was such a loss of credibiltiy with the Iraq war lies that people just do not believe what they hear from government anymore. The handling of the crisis added to the sense that the current adminstration is a bunch of incompetent liars --- the fact that they told us everything was OK with the economy right up to the point at which they suddenly called it a crisis. McCain faces tha same problem with his "fundamentals of the economy are strong" quote.

And here is something I don't think I have heard a lot of people talk about. I think that on top of the desire to punish whoever they percieve as responsible (right or wrong), people tned to throw in their lot with the Democrats when the economy is REALLY bad. This country has a small upper class and a small lower class and a large middle class. The two parties fight over that middle class. When things are good, that middle class feels the possibility that they too might make it into the upper class and they begin to support policies that open opportunities for the upper class --- Republican policies. When things are bad, that middle class begins to fear that they might actually slip into the lower class, and they begin to favor policies that give a greater safety net to the lower class --- Democratic policies. If you are in the middle class right now, how do you see your near future --- are you more likely to get rich or get poor? Are you more concerned about opening opportunities or having a safety net?

People see every measure of wealth dropping right now -- wages, house values, investment values. Wages are stagnant, and a lot of jobs are just plain gone. House prices keep falling. Banks are closing and the stock market is plummeting. All of your sources of income and wealth are on the decline right now in a big way. On top of that, everything you buy is costing more --- gas, food, healthcare, etc.

I think people are really scared right now that they are going to face poverty --- lose their job, get stuck with a house worth less than the mortgage, and see their investments melt away. So it is more than just punishing the party in charge, and it is more than trying to find the party who will "fix" the economy. They are looking for the party who is likely to see them through a tough time with a decent safety net.