Obama and McCain dead even again

[dragonrider]

Polls don't mean shit.

Every election year there are polls that say this or that and they always end up being way off.

But dragonrider, your post cracks me up. You see the polls in a dead heat and then you make the gist of, "well uh, this will fade fast, Obama will pick it up, there must be some sort of error, this will change, you'll see....". Can't you just accept the truth? Haha sorry hun, I had to pull your chain.

Typical Liberal haha.

Ha ha! I'm just saying what I think will happen, but who knows? It may just be wishfull thinking on my part!

You are absolutely right though, about the polls not meaning shit. Thay are accurate up to a degree, but almost always off by way more than thier so-called "margin of error." I'm thinking back to the Democratic primary especially, when after every major event or primary election, the polls and pundits got it wrong. Then they would immediately launch into this insane analysis about "what it means" and a new round of polls showing why the NEW trend was right, and then it would go the other way again. I got the impression they were wrong more often than they were right.

The other thing to remember is how important it is how the individual states are leaning. The popular vote can be a virtual tie and still have the electoral college go in a landslide if one candidate gets a huge margin in one state, and the other gets small margins in lots of states.

[rebgirl420]

Your correct.

I remember watching my first real political debates and polls (For Clinton on his second term when he was in trouble and then for Bush after, yes I'm young haha) and the polls had Gore winning by at least 10-15% in some.

Well, of course THAT was amiss. I think it's just for ratings. Really we would all have better results if we all stripped naked, covered ourselves in flour and let the wind guid us to who is going to win haha.

We'll never know until the end.

[daihashi]

Your correct.

I remember watching my first real political debates and polls (For Clinton on his second term when he was in trouble and then for Bush after, yes I'm young haha) and the polls had Gore winning by at least 10-15% in some.

That lead dwindled down after the conventions though .. And historically at least since Reagans first run for president the democrats have always held a double digit lead up until October; which is why I've said in other threads that if Obama wants to win he needs to try to pull a double digit lead at the bare minimum.

Polls are not correct, and polls are flawed but if you use some common sense and use historical polling data verses the results of an election you can get a sort've clear picture of how things may turn out.

In the end though it's just an educated guess.
:hippy:

[rebgirl420]

I prefer the "we all stripped naked, covered ourselves in flour and let the wind guid us to who is going to win" idea better,

But I guess logical deductions work too haha (Though not as fun).

[daihashi]

I prefer the "we all stripped naked, covered ourselves in flour and let the wind guid us to who is going to win" idea better,

But I guess logical deductions work too haha (Though not as fun).

I'm not sure I'd want to see some people naked Scary stuff.

[rebgirl420]

Yeah, politicians naked in flour....not always a good thing....

[daihashi]

Yeah, politicians naked in flour....not always a good thing....

OMG NEWT GINGRICH!!! IS THAT YOU! HOT!

[rebgirl420]

Nope, it's Teddy Kennedy!