Quote Originally Posted by daihashi
Honestly we really won't know until October sometime when things start to really pick up and get crazy. Last time I checked though a 5 point poll lead is not a land slide. Obama will need a double digit lead if he wants to put the election on lock down.
It's true we won't know for some time, and the polling shows a very close race. But I think that maybe the polling methodologies have not kept up with the times. For example, pollsters call people on land lines, while a significant number of young people do not even have land line phones --- they use cell phones. Also polls use demographic models of who they THINK are going to representative of voters, but the Obama campaign claims to have brought in large numbers of people who were not likely to vote in the past. I think the polls are missing a large segment of people who are going to vote for Obama.

In addition, you have much more excitement on the Democratic side than you have on the Republican side. That will probably translate into a difference in turnout on election day. So even if the margin really is only 5%, if a larger percentage of Obama voters are motivated to turn out than the percentage of McCain voters, it will increase the final margin.

You are absolutely correct that we won't know for some time, maybe not even until election day. But I have a feeliong it is going for the Democrats in a big way this year.