I think Obama will win. I think it is going to be closer than I thought a month ago, but I think he will win.

Even though a lot of us political enthusiasts have been paying close attention all along for almost a year now, much of the public doesn't really tune in to the election until the conventions. After the next two weeks, the camapigns will really start to take off, and I think Obama will pull ahead and take it.

The Republican "brand" is just too damaged after Bush to prevail. The far right base that does the hard work of the campaigns for the Republicans are not behind McCain to the level that he needs. He doesn't have teh enrgized support that wins campaigns. Obama hs plenty of energized support, volunteers and money --- and I think he will take the election.