Quote Originally Posted by rhizome
Meant that as a response to the post saying that it was a close race- my point was that we can't extract much hard data from the polls in question. To some extant, you've reinforced my undelying point- lots of folks out there on cell-only, they tend to be younger ( look @ cell provider marketing- they've done their market analysis), and everybodies #'s say that under-30's are trending D this cycle.
You've failed to prove how buying a cell phone and not having a land line would skew these polls. I list my cell phone number as my home phone number on all applications. The polls don't ask you if you have a physical land line; they just ask for your home number.

I don't think it's a media conspiracy- but when McCain actually has a slight bump in his #'s, of course the papers wanna headline it. Each media outlet acting in it's own self-interest, not a conspiracy. They stick " McCain takes Lead!" on the front page, everybody says " WTF?", and they sell a lot of papers. It's a classic " man bites dog" story.
True and I see what you're saying now. I can agree with this. After their media frenzy with Obama coming to a near halt they need someone else to boost their ratings now.


My point in mentioning the state by states is to look at long term trends, over multiple data sources. I don't feel that I've backpedeled in any way.

F'rinstance, McCain made the mistake today of not clearly disagreeing with a supporter who suggested that a draft is needed. This'll be all over Youtube tonight, tomorrow morning's #'s will be down... but three days from now, it'll all level out.

It's like playing the market- a good day doesn't make a solid pick.
I see what you're saying now; this post explained alot of confusion I had about your earlier posts. I agree polls are never supposed to project the long term. It's impossible to do that in polls just because as humans we are going to change our mind more often than not.

Going by what the polls currently say.. I'd be inclined to think that if the elections happened today that Obama would be in for some serious hurt. All I can go by is the polls and how it would effect things if the election were to go down today.

Really that's how you have to look at the polls because it's impossible to project the curve of people's opinions over any sustained duration of time.