Quote Originally Posted by daihashi


First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.
Meant that as a response to the post saying that it was a close race- my point was that we can't extract much hard data from the polls in question. To some extant, you've reinforced my undelying point- lots of folks out there on cell-only, they tend to be younger ( look @ cell provider marketing- they've done their market analysis), and everybodies #'s say that under-30's are trending D this cycle.

I don't think it's a media conspiracy- but when McCain actually has a slight bump in his #'s, of course the papers wanna headline it. Each media outlet acting in it's own self-interest, not a conspiracy. They stick " McCain takes Lead!" on the front page, everybody says " WTF?", and they sell a lot of papers. It's a classic " man bites dog" story.

My point in mentioning the state by states is to look at long term trends, over multiple data sources. I don't feel that I've backpedeled in any way.

F'rinstance, McCain made the mistake today of not clearly disagreeing with a supporter who suggested that a draft is needed. This'll be all over Youtube tonight, tomorrow morning's #'s will be down... but three days from now, it'll all level out.

It's like playing the market- a good day doesn't make a solid pick.