Two states shift to Obama

[dragonrider]

CNN's Electoral Map: Two states shift to Obama

(CNN) â?? Two more states have shifted to Barack Obama's column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidatesâ?? strength leading up to the November election.

"Toss-up" states Minnesota and Wisconsin were re-designated to "Lean-Obama" Friday, giving the presumptive Democratic nominee another 20 electoral votes in CNN's current estimate. The Illinois senator now has 231 electoral votes â?? 39 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change after new polling conducted by Quinnipiac University showed that Obama holds double-digit leads over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in both states. CNN's analysis estimates McCain has 194 electoral votes.

This is only a CNN estimate and is likely to change many more times in the lead up to the election.

The Quinnipiac surveys, released Thursday, showed Obama with a 17-point lead in Minnesota, 54-37 percent, and a 13 point lead in Wisconsin, 52-39 percent.

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - CNN’s Electoral Map: Two states shift to Obama « - Blogs from CNN.com

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I think we are just seeing the begining of the landslide here. More and more swing states are going to flip over into Obama's column pretty quickly here. Almost the entire midwest will flip very quickly, and then probalby Florida, Nevada, Colorado, maybe New Mexico. Hell, there is a chance he'll have enough margin in enough states that you might call it a lock before we even get to the conventions.

P4B, I see Obama has a 13-point lead in Wisconsin. Does that make you feel "blue?"

dragonrider Reviewed by dragonrider on 06-27-2008. Two states shift to Obama CNN's Electoral Map: Two states shift to Obama (CNN) â?? Two more states have shifted to Barack Obama's column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidatesâ?? strength leading up to the November election. "Toss-up" states Minnesota and Wisconsin were re-designated to "Lean-Obama" Friday, giving the presumptive Democratic nominee another 20 electoral votes in CNN's current estimate. The Illinois senator now has 231 electoral votes â?? 39 shy of winning the presidency. CNN Rating: 5

[Psycho4Bud]

LMAO......this is based on what? Two states that have voted for Gore and Kerry in the past? Keep on grasping at them straws my friend. Wisconsin and Minnisota shouldn't just be a lean but a given for the Dems.

Have a good one!:s4:

[dragonrider]

LMAO......this is based on what? Two states that have voted for Gore and Kerry in the past? Keep on grasping at them straws my friend. Wisconsin and Minnisota shouldn't just be a lean but a given for the Dems.

Have a good one!:s4:

Ha ha! Hey, I'm just going by how CNN had them ranked --- last week they were considered in play, now the lead is pretty large and they consider them "leaning." I don't know what the statistical threshold is for "Swing," "Leaning" and "Safe" is.

So you would consider these two to actually be safe for Obama? That really doesn't leave much in play left at all.

The dumb thing about this CNN Election Map is that they report this story about how Michigan is now listed as "leaning" for Obama, but then they don't update the actual color-coded map to show it.

[Psycho4Bud]

The CBS Evening News reported that while Barack Obama has gotten "quite a bounce" in the polls following his primary win, it is no guarantee of success in November. CBS, noting Obama leads of varying sizes in a number of recent surveys, looks at the historical record and says, "Back in July of 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Vice President George H. W. Bush. Bush won comfortably. And in mid-June of 1992, Bill Clinton trailed both President Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot. Clinton recovered."

On another front, the Washington Post reports that a memo from GOP pollsters yesterday took issue with the LA Times/Bloomberg poll showing Obama topping John McCain 49%-37%, saying it over-surveyed Democrats (they were 39% of those polled, compared to 22% of Republicans.) The LAT defended their polling on their "Top of the Ticket " political blog yesterday.

McCain, Obama Now Tied In Gallup Tracking The newest Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows the presidential race now tied, with both Obama and McCain polling 45%. The poll surveyed 2,600 registered voter from June 22-24. Obama had been holding a 2-4 point lead for the previous week.
USNews.com: Political Bulletin: Thursday, June 26, 2008

He should win Wisconsin and Minnisota like the dems in the past have. Love these polls though....if they were correct it would have been Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. Like I heard on t.v. the other night...nobody will really know the actual feelings of the U.S. voter untill that curtain shuts in the booths.

There are alot of issues like drilling for oil, nuclear facilities and who is actually best to handle foriegn affairs that people will consider before pulling the lever. :thumbsup: LOL.....I don't think "Dr. No" will be so popular when they had to fuel up to get to that voting booth.

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r22SQ1EYlo[/YOUTUBE]

Have a good one!:s4:

[dragonrider]

Yeah, polling is definitely not exact and it is WAY to early to tell what will happen. But if you look at the movement in a single given poll over time, you can get a good idea of trending, even if it doesn't give you an accurate absolute reading. If you get on your scale every day, and over the course of the year it goes from 185 to 200, you might say, "That scale is off! I'm not fat!" That might be true, but you are getting fatter. Same deal here --- the change in the polling does not guarantee Obama will win any given state that CNN has colored blue, but it's pretty safe to say that if they are switching states blue, that indicates the direction things are trending at this point.

Still, you are right that it is too early to say how these trends might bear out over the months to go. My feeling is that Obama is gaining momentum and McCain is floundering, but we will see if he can gain his footing and catch up.

[Psycho4Bud]

Still, you are right that it is too early to say how these trends might bear out over the months to go. My feeling is that Obama is gaining momentum and McCain is floundering, but we will see if he can gain his footing and catch up.

Let the price of gas keep climbing and let Obama stand tall on his stance of NO on drilling and NO on nuclear power.....there'll be switch in the polls sure as I'm sitting here. :thumbsup:

Have a good one!:s4: