Obama leads McCain in swing states

[dragonrider]

Poll: Obama leads McCain in swing states

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama is leading Sen. John McCain in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a new survey.

Obama lost the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania by 9 percentage points. But a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows him leading McCain by 12 points, 52 to 40 percent.

In Ohio, a state Obama lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton by 10 points in March, he's leading McCain 48 to 42 percent.

And in Florida, where he did not campaign this primary season and lost an unsanctioned Democratic contest, he leads McCain 47 to 43 percent.

The Ohio and Florida results are reversals from Quinnipiac polls published a month ago, when Clinton was still in the race and McCain led Obama in hypothetical match-ups.

In the waning days of her campaign, Clinton argued to voters and superdelegates that she should be the nominee because she was the stronger candidate to beat McCain in these swing states during the general election.

Democrats in all three swing states say they'd like to see her on the ballot this fall, but independent voters give the idea a thumbs-down by margins of 9 to 16 percent.

Florida clinched the presidency for George W. Bush in 2000, and Ohio did the same in 2004.

Quinnipiac surveyed between 1,300 and 1,500 voters in each state June 9-16. The polls had margins of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for Pennsylvania and 2.6 percentage points for Ohio and Florida.

If the swing state momentum for Obama catches on all over the country, there may be a new electoral map.

The latest CNN national poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation, shows Obama running strongest in the West -- and not just California.

"The 10 Rocky Mountain states have been traditionally the most Republican part of the country. So that's why it's so amazing that the polls show Obama doing well out here," said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College.

Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, three Western states that Bush carried by narrow margins in 2004, now look vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, even though they all border McCain's Arizona.

So what's behind the change?

"In the upper-class suburbs of Denver that used to be so solidly Republican, a lot of aspects of the Bush administration have not played well there," Loevy said. "His war policies, his policies on abortion, gay marriage ... simply have not played well with the old Republican Party out there in the Rocky Mountain west. So it's in the upscale suburbs that we see the strongest shift to the Democrats."

Poll: Obama leads McCain in swing states - CNN.com

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It's still really early in the general election, but things do not look good for McCain.

There was some discussion in another thread about whether Obama got the "bump" he expected after clinching the nomination, but the important thing it seems is that the swing states he lost to Clinton have jumped on board enough that he is ahead of McCain in those battleground states. And it is also interesting that he is putting into play some solidly Republican states in the west. McCain does not have the resources to run the national campaign that Obama can run. He's screwed if he has to defend the states that Bush took easily, in addition to fighting for the battleground states.

It looks to me like Obama is doing well in the battleground states and also opening up new fronts in Republican states, whereas McCain has not made any headway in the battleground, nor opened up any Democratic states.

dragonrider Reviewed by dragonrider on 06-19-2008. Obama leads McCain in swing states Poll: Obama leads McCain in swing states WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama is leading Sen. John McCain in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a new survey. Obama lost the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania by 9 percentage points. But a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows him leading McCain by 12 points, 52 to 40 percent. In Ohio, a state Obama lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton by 10 points in March, he's leading McCain 48 to 42 Rating: 5

[birdgirl73]

The money that's pouring in to the Obama campaign really is amazing, isn't it? In little tiny bits that add up to millions!

I would like to see Obama, as he has claimed he may do, color some completely red states to blue but I don't know enough about the map prospects to know which ones they might be. Do you?

I was pleased to see that Obama's not taking public campaign support. He doesn't have to with all that filthy lucre given straight to him. I considered posting that as a separate post because it's an ethically very significant thread. But I am so enjoying my last day of true laziness that I just had to wait till later on . . .

[dragonrider]

I would like to see Obama, as he has claimed he may do, color some completely red states to blue but I don't know enough about the map prospects to know which ones they might be. Do you?

The ones specificaly mentioned in the article are Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. Those I do not believe have been really considered "swing" states in recent elections --- more solidly red or red leaning. So it is interesting to see Obama strengthening there enough to put those states into play. And apparently he is doing better than other Democrats have done throughout the west; although the article did no say he was likely to flip any of those other solidly red Western states. The changes in these western states are changes based primariy on issues.

There was another thread with a quote from Obama that he may be able to bring more black voters into the process and put some other southern states into play as well. There was some criticism by members that they whole idea is racist, but I don't think so at all. Regardless, it could be a political reality that in the south, the huge number of black citizens who do not usually vote may be inspired to do so by having a black candidate, and they will probably lean toward the Democrats. It's early to say, but I could see how that might put a few solidly red or red-leaning states in the south within reach.