Quote Originally Posted by thcbongman
Obama has zero chance if he's nominated. Democratic party might as well surrender.

The south compromises 30% of the electoral vote. Within that, there are many white men who'd never vote for a black man, or a woman.

It's entirely possible to win without the south, but 30% is a huge chunk to gamble on. Next thing I know, I'll be called a racist for thinking this, but I'm being realistic. The south will never vote a black man in.

I'm still undecided on who I am going to vote for. I like Obama, but I don't think he has much of a chance.
I disagree with this.

Among Democrats in the South, the black vote is an important factor. If blacks vote for him in the Southern primaries, he has a very good chance of doing well in the primaries in the south and getting the nomination. Within the Democratic party, the black vote will outweigh the racist white bubba vote. We'll see what happens in South Carolina pretty soon, and I think he will probably win there.

In the General Election, the South is not a huge factor for the Democratic candidate, because the South seldoms swings Democratic anyway. Almost no Democratic candidate has any hope of winning the South regardless of race, so I don't think it matters much what the nominee's race is when it comes to the Southern vote. It's problematic for Democrats in general that they never win the South anymore, but I don't think race will change that one way or another.