McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll

John McCain has grabbed the lead in a new opinion poll over rival Barack Obama, in the latest sign of accelerating momentum for the Republican as the key phase dawns in their White House battle.

McCain led Obama 47 percent to 46 percent in a nationwide matchup in the new George Washington University Battleground poll published on Wednesday. The Illinois Democrat had led the same poll by 49 percent to 47 percent in May.

The George Washington survey was the latest poll to show an erosion in Obama's poll numbers, following several weeks of withering attacks by McCain on his national security judgement and celebrity.

It also came days before Obama is expected to unveil his vice presidential pick ahead of the Democratic convention next week, to be followed by McCain's running mate selection and the Republican convention between September 1 and 4.

Other polls have also been showing a McCain spurt.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out Tuesday gave Obama a slim lead of 45 to 43 percent, within the survey's three point margin of error. In June he had led by 12 points, though other polls at the time had the race slightly closer.

A Quinnipiac University poll on Tuesday also showed Obama's national lead over McCain slipping -- he led 47 to 42 percent, down from a 50 to 41 percent lead nationally in the same poll a month ago.

The George Washington poll suggested that McCain's gains over the last two months were partly fueled by his aggressive demand for an expansion in offshore oil drilling as a way to lower high gasoline prices.

Forty percent of those asked said that McCain, who visited an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, was the best bet to reduce oil and gas prices, compared to 37 percent for Obama.

In May, 50 percent of those polled thought that Obama could do a best job in lowering prices at the pump, compared to only 31 percent for McCain.

Obama initially opposed McCain's call for offshore drilling, which Democrats say would do little to mitigate high oil prices as extra oil supplies would not hit the market for around a decade.

But as polls show Americans favor more drilling by a large majority, Obama has softened his stand in recent weeks, saying he would agree to some more prospecting as part of a bid to pass a sweeping energy plan.

The George Washington University poll was conducted among 1,003 registered likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.
AFP: McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll

After 8 years of G.W. this is amazing to say the least. Kind of says something about the candidate the Dems have elected.

Don't blame me, I voted for Clinton.:D

Have a good one!:s4:

Dude- it's a Zogby, fer christ's sake...
Take a look @ how accurate they've been over the past decade, and tell me you think that this is meaningful.

As far as I can tell, Zogby's pools are made up of cartoon characters- so this just reinforces what we already knew-

McCain gets the Loony Tune vote.

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Originally Posted by rhizome

Dude- it's a Zogby, fer christ's sake...
Take a look @ how accurate they've been over the past decade, and tell me you think that this is meaningful.

As far as I can tell, Zogby's pools are made up of cartoon characters- so this just reinforces what we already knew-

McCain gets the Loony Tune vote.

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Rasmussen Reportsâ?¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

rasmussen puts up close to the same numbers.

Yeah, but look at Rasmussen's state by state ( ie electoral vote) #'s.

Unless he's got Christ himself in the VP slot, McW gets to retire.

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Originally Posted by rhizome

Yeah, but look at Rasmussen's state by state ( ie electoral vote) #'s.

Unless he's got Christ himself in the VP slot, McW gets to retire.

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Polling reflects popular vote/votes among non officials.

There have been very few times in history where a candidate has won the popular vote but not won the electoral vote.

I would take take that with a grain of salt.

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WikiAnswers - What presidents lost the popular vote but won the electoral college vote

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Just a quick reference of past presidents who have lost the popular vote but won the electoral college.

We've had 43 presidents and only 4 of them have won the electoral college but not the popular vote. Mr. Obama's "guaranteed" victory is slipping further and further away.

Going on History, if he loses the popular vote it seems unlikely that he will win the electoral college as well.

It sure is a close one.

No, it's really not.

F'rnstance, both polls mentioned here automatically do not poll anyone who doesn't have, and answer during the day, a landline telephone.

How many folks under the age of 50 do you know who are home to answer their phone during a weekday?

Poll demographics are all screwed up.

Remember- it's in the interest of the media to make this seem as close as possible, so that more folks will watch the coverage, so that they can sell more advertising.

Take a look @ total #'s of individual donors to each campaign, volunteer hours logged, in-kind donations, registration #'s- it's not all that close.

Hmm, good points. I enjoyed watching that debate with that pastor guy. You never know until it's over, all of this speculation is only that: speculation.

I seem to remember many, many polls in 2004 that showed John Kerry was going to win. I put no faith in these polls.

Times and eras are equally as fallible as man.

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Originally Posted by rhizome

F'rnstance, both polls mentioned here automatically do not poll anyone who doesn't have, and answer during the day, a landline telephone.

How many folks under the age of 50 do you know who are home to answer their phone during a weekday?

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What about people who have supplemented their land line with a cell phone. Cell phones are relatively cheap now and it's becoming common day occurence. I for one do not even own a land line. Just a cell phone. A great number of my friends also have gotten rid of their land lines in favor of a full time cell phone.

It seems that this is becoming increasingly popular. So while you ask that question in attempts to point out it's flaw, I present to you another factor that is not taken into account that levels the playing field of the question you poised.

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Poll demographics are all screwed up.

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Polls are just polls, but they are all we have to go on until election day.

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Remember- it's in the interest of the media to make this seem as close as possible, so that more folks will watch the coverage, so that they can sell more advertising.

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Well, seeing as how polls are just polls I doubt the media are conspiring together in order to make pollsters like Rasmussen and Gallup skew results in their favor. To sell advertising. That would be a hell of a lot of work and money. It doesn't make sense fiscally.

What they can do in order to sell more advertising is dramatize the election, but they have no control over any polls except the ones the media does themselves.

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Take a look @ total #'s of individual donors to each campaign, volunteer hours logged, in-kind donations, registration #'s- it's not all that close.

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The last I checked we voted by dropping a name in a ballet and not by the amount of volunteers or donations a member has.

First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.

It's hard to take your argument seriously with the back peddling.

I will agree with you on one thing though.... no one can really know how this election is going to go down. All we can do is guess by poll data that is available to us and the current events we read about/see on TV news networks.

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Originally Posted by daihashi

First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.

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Meant that as a response to the post saying that it was a close race- my point was that we can't extract much hard data from the polls in question. To some extant, you've reinforced my undelying point- lots of folks out there on cell-only, they tend to be younger ( look @ cell provider marketing- they've done their market analysis), and everybodies #'s say that under-30's are trending D this cycle.

I don't think it's a media conspiracy- but when McCain actually has a slight bump in his #'s, of course the papers wanna headline it. Each media outlet acting in it's own self-interest, not a conspiracy. They stick " McCain takes Lead!" on the front page, everybody says " WTF?", and they sell a lot of papers. It's a classic " man bites dog" story.

My point in mentioning the state by states is to look at long term trends, over multiple data sources. I don't feel that I've backpedeled in any way.

F'rinstance, McCain made the mistake today of not clearly disagreeing with a supporter who suggested that a draft is needed. This'll be all over Youtube tonight, tomorrow morning's #'s will be down... but three days from now, it'll all level out.

It's like playing the market- a good day doesn't make a solid pick.

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Originally Posted by rhizome

Meant that as a response to the post saying that it was a close race- my point was that we can't extract much hard data from the polls in question. To some extant, you've reinforced my undelying point- lots of folks out there on cell-only, they tend to be younger ( look @ cell provider marketing- they've done their market analysis), and everybodies #'s say that under-30's are trending D this cycle.

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You've failed to prove how buying a cell phone and not having a land line would skew these polls. I list my cell phone number as my home phone number on all applications. The polls don't ask you if you have a physical land line; they just ask for your home number.

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I don't think it's a media conspiracy- but when McCain actually has a slight bump in his #'s, of course the papers wanna headline it. Each media outlet acting in it's own self-interest, not a conspiracy. They stick " McCain takes Lead!" on the front page, everybody says " WTF?", and they sell a lot of papers. It's a classic " man bites dog" story.

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True and I see what you're saying now. I can agree with this. After their media frenzy with Obama coming to a near halt they need someone else to boost their ratings now.

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My point in mentioning the state by states is to look at long term trends, over multiple data sources. I don't feel that I've backpedeled in any way.

F'rinstance, McCain made the mistake today of not clearly disagreeing with a supporter who suggested that a draft is needed. This'll be all over Youtube tonight, tomorrow morning's #'s will be down... but three days from now, it'll all level out.

It's like playing the market- a good day doesn't make a solid pick.

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I see what you're saying now; this post explained alot of confusion I had about your earlier posts. I agree polls are never supposed to project the long term. It's impossible to do that in polls just because as humans we are going to change our mind more often than not.

Going by what the polls currently say.. I'd be inclined to think that if the elections happened today that Obama would be in for some serious hurt. All I can go by is the polls and how it would effect things if the election were to go down today.

Really that's how you have to look at the polls because it's impossible to project the curve of people's opinions over any sustained duration of time.

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Originally Posted by daihashi

You've failed to prove how buying a cell phone and not having a land line would skew these polls. I list my cell phone number as my home phone number on all applications. The polls don't ask you if you have a physical land line; they just ask for your home number.

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Polling companies routinely eliminate cell # prefixes, as they can not know that the phone is normally physically in the geographical area being polled.

Cells are mobile.

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Originally Posted by rhizome

Polling companies routinely eliminate cell # prefixes, as they can not know that the phone is normally physically in the geographical area being polled.

Cells are mobile.

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I'll have to ask why I haven't been taken off the poll then :thumbsup:

You do realize that this can be confirmed thru the use of "teh Google", right?

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Originally Posted by daihashi

First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.

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but if it aint fox it aint reputable/truthfull i thought. or atleast that's how you sound when afew others post things.

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Originally Posted by texas grass

but if it aint fox it aint reputable/truthfull i thought. or atleast that's how you sound when afew others post things.

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Did you chime in just to try to insult me? Fox news is not true news it's conservative activism much like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh. However it does give you information to look up and verify on your own as does CNN, CSPAN or any other so called 'news networks'. They're all in it for show; the real information requires people to dig for.

I mentioned rasmussen and gallup; I didn't mention fox. I'm confused as to why you would try to slam me over something irrelevant. As a matter of fact when I post links I try to make sure not to use a fox news link because I know everyone here will jump all over it.

Try to be a little more sly and stealthy when you are trying to bait me. I would think that you would have better things to do with your time than to write 1 liners but I guess not. So, unless you have something to add to the actual topic at hand I will be ceasing our interaction here.

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Originally Posted by texas grass

but if it aint fox it aint reputable/truthfull i thought. or atleast that's how you sound when afew others post things.

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And if I sound critical of others it's often because they post poor sources for their information. Scarce blogs, websites that are stamped with democrat or people who have been known to be largely biased to the left.

You would be equally critical if I posted no sources or sources from, apparently, Fox News.

good!!
i hate EVERYTHING obama stands for~ He is a FAKE!!!

Mccain and Obama are both jokes. All politicians and politics are, Joker 4 prez...

The LAN line telephone argument is weak at best, this isn't Dewey beats Truman. The GWU Battleground poll is a bi-partisan poll conducted independently by 2 separate companies: Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners.

However when I saw the data itself, it asks for very decisive answers and they do not read out the "undecided" bit. I think there would've been a higher percentage of undecided voters.

Other than that, it seems to reflect the current climate, it's an undecided race and anyones presidency to take.