decrease the chance of having all males using math

Let's say you've got a small grow space and can only flower two plants. So you plant 3 seedlings instead of 2 hoping to increase your chances of having 2 females. Common sense, right?

But by how much exactly did you increase your chances?

If you only have 2 seedlings, assuming you don't have feminized seeds and ignoring environmental factors which might affect sex, you've only got a 1-in-4 chance (25%) that both are female. But there's also a 1-in-4 chance that both are males. There's a 50% chance one is female and the other male. So 75% of the time, you won't have two females:
MM
MF
FM
FF

However, if you have 3 seedlings instead of 2, you've got a 50% chance that at least two are female, a 37.5% chance that only 1 is female, and a 12.5% chance that all 3 will be male:
MMM
MMF
MFM
MFF
FMM
FMF
FFM
FFF

So, by adding one more seedling, you've doubled the odds of having at least 2 females (from 25% to 50%), and cut in half the chance of having no females (from 25% to 12.5%).

In fact, each seedling you add will cut in half the chance of having no females. So having 4 seedlings, even though you've only got room for two to flower, your chance of having all males is only 6.25%, and your chance of having at least 2 females is now 68.75%.

I knew Sesame Street would come in handy one day!

ok my head hurts after reading that.... math sucks!..I think you're better off just :jointsmile: and hoping you get females. I'm not so sure it would work that way.... more seeds better odds ide say, but prolly depends on genetics and treatment to the plant and how sensitive the strain to stress etc..

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Originally Posted by Twentyinches

ok my head hurts after reading that.... math sucks!..I think you're better off just :jointsmile: and hoping you get females. I'm not so sure it would work that way.... more seeds better odds ide say, but prolly depends on genetics and treatment to the plant and how sensitive the strain to stress etc..

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...or you could just double-cross your fingers, spin three times, and tap your heels. :wtf:

I was trying to quantify what you refer to as "more seeds better odds". Of course if you buy feminized seeds you have a much higher chance of getting all females. And there are environmental factors as well, which I mentioned, but which are very hard to control.

But what you can control is how many seedlings you start with. And you can figure out how much each added seedling will affect your odds, everything else being equal.

Anyway, that was the point of my post. :rasta:

I guess what i mean with more seeds better odds is if you want 3 females, i wouldn't start with 3 seeds... ide prolly plant at least 6-7...then hopfully get the 3 you wanted. And if lucky get more then the 3.. but i'm basing that off 50/50 odds...
which all this said is basically what you said in your last line...but I get your point, i just refuse to think math applies to everything lol

I just psychically will my plants to be female. I don't have to do math or plant extra seeds that way, and it always works. For only $25 per plant, I will psychically will anybodies plants to be female.

Nice I like it. The mathmatics and the little bit of genetics your threw in there :)

yea math sucks. I read it, now I am gonna get baked and figure it out.

Reasonable thinking SecondNut. i agree with your rationality.

So basically its like this, the more seeds you start of with the better the chance of getting 1 or more females. But with that said, check this out. im on my third grow and for my first 2 grows I started with 4 seeds and both times only got 1 female, so this time im going to try to start it off with 6 seeds and maybe ill get 2-3 females. GOD I LOVE GROWING MARIJUANA, NOT JUST BECAUSE ITS WEED BUT ITS MY WEED THAT I GROW THAT I CARE AND HAVE FEELINGS FOR AND AND AND yeah you get the point.

^^uhh, taker easy dude.

Well, personally I want at least 10 females. I'm going to soak 40 seeds, weed out the straglers, and if I end up with more than 10, great, if not, that's some bad luck.

Holy Moly!!! I'm glad I have 9 plants in veg.. and I'm keeping temps in the 70's.

Hey Opie, thanks for the great offer!! As an alternative, I'm willing mine to be female, and talk to them a lot. If all works out, I'm hoping for 5-6 out of the 9. May be wishful thinking, but what the hell!

;) Farmer Rich

Um........ basically the more seeds you have the more females you get? Isnt that a bit obvious?

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Originally Posted by Farmer Rich

If all works out, I'm hoping for 5-6 out of the 9. May be wishful thinking, but what the hell!

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That's not an unreasonable request. I see those percentages quite a bit.

Hmm, I imagine that math has its place in estimating male to female results, but the environmental factors which are able to be reasonably controled especially in the winter months are a better determiner on sex results IMO. The RNA which is a plant DNA determines the sex in the plant, this takes place in the first 10 to 21 days, meaning, the sex is determined already durring that period. One simple way to promote more female plants is to keep the temps in the low to mid 60's. Higher temps will produce more males. Don't get freaky with nutes, or tweek out the seedling with a bunch of ruff handling and have nice gentle air exchange and you can increase your chances.
Adieu

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Originally Posted by SecondNut

In fact, each seedling you add will cut in half the chance of having no females. So having 4 seedlings, even though you've only got room for two to flower, your chance of having all males is only 6.25%, and your chance of having at least 2 females is now 68.75%.
!

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not sure if this is accurate, if u plant 4, u will have the same chance of having at least 2 females as if u were to have at least 2males, 50%

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Originally Posted by MRB041

not sure if this is accurate, if u plant 4, u will have the same chance of having at least 2 females as if u were to have at least 2males, 50%

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I agree. It's 50/50 for EACH plant, not for the total plants being grown.

This is not good because while you increase the amount of seeds to increase the odds of having a higher female turn-out you're actually decreasing your odds at the same time. (in a situation such as this, we're not gambling.) This is because you also increase the odds of a higher male turn-out.

Imagine, you plant 6 seeds hoping for at LEAST 3 females. You take the time and effort to grow 6 plants and successfully get them ALL to flowering. They show thier sex. They all turn out male. It COULD happen. Would it? I doubt it. But the point is your odds are still the same.

THAT'S 50/50.

I thought that was pretty obvious? :wtf:

Now lets think even more logically here. Lets say some NooB wants to grow some pot. Yall tell the person to grow MORE plants because it makes the female outcome better. Well 2 months into the grow someone knocks on the door, he answers. The person at the door shoves a paper in his face and searches the house.

In the court of law, 10 plants are less than 1.

I don't advise growing a lot of plants all at once simply to increase the odds of getting more females. If you're only going to flower 2, grow 2 plants.

It's got nothing to do with odds, it's nature, love it or loath, doesn't matter because it's the cold truth...

The only way to increase your odds of getting a female out of a seed is via feminization.

just blast them with some heavy metal and hope for more females lol... according to the "m y t h busters" plants lisnin to heavy metal grow better... if only that were the same for getting all females :thumbsup:

A few people missed the reasoning for this post. It is not to increase the odds of getting females, but instead increasing the odds of producing a given number of females.

As the OP says, if you only have room for 2 plants to flower you want 2 females. How many seeds should one start with to give the best odds (within reason once approaching 100%) to have 2 females?

It isn't trying to say you have more/less chance at all/no females, it is just looking at: if you want X females, you should start with Y seeds. The averages will always remain 50/50 on the whole, but planting 10 seeds and wanting 2 females would pretty much be a "guarantee". Is 9 seeds enough for 2 females? How about 7? Etc...

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Originally Posted by eggrole1

A few people missed the reasoning for this post.

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No, I completely understand the reasoning for the post.

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The averages will always remain 50/50 on the whole, but planting 10 seeds and wanting 2 females would pretty much be a "guarantee". Is 9 seeds enough for 2 females? How about 7? Etc...

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No it would not be a gaurantee. There would be a 50/50 chance that ALL of them could be males. You might get 1 female and 9 males.

Trust me, after 3.5 years of outdoor cultivation I've finally figured out that if you want a GAURANTEED female, you have to either learn how to produce feminized seeds or buy some feminized seeds. Save yourself from the dissapointment.

I planted 17 seeds from a vile I had been collecting seeds in for many years once. Had 17 BEAUTIFUL plants. 15 of them were male... Had one Hermi and one female left. The female ended up dying. Now COULD you have gotten 15 females and 2 males? Of course! BUT that is not determined by any type of number or patteren or anything like that...

Plants cannot detect that they are by other plants. Therefor if you had 2 plants, your ODDS are the SAME as if you had 4 plants.

Basically what some people are saying is if you have 2 plants you will DEFINITLY get ONE female and ONE male. Not true. Not in any way.

Based on the SAME LOGIC, if you have 6 plants you will DEFINITLY get AT LEAST 2-3 females. Not true. Not in any way.

You MIGHT get what you want you MIGHT not.

If you want to increase the ODDS of a better female to male turnout I'm telling you, buy feminized seeds or learn how to produce them.

I will argue this to death because people do not need to be growing 10 plants when they only plan on keeping 2-4. That's just ignorance on the behalf of an inexperienced cultivator taking advice from more inexperienced cultivators...

Say it with me now, FEMINIZED SEEDS. :thumbsup:

If you have 2 pots, and germinate 20 seeds, you DO increase your chances of getting 2 females. No one is saying that this is concrete. Statistics is not fact, its an educated guess. People in statistics never say, theres a 70% chance for rain. They would say, there is a 60-80% chance of rain. Thus, allowing them a better chance of being correct.

If you were to bet me I couldn't flip a coin heads 2 times, I would ask how many times I get to flip the coin, if you give me 2 times and I want 20 times, I have a better chance of flipping heads when the coin is flipped 20 times then only 2. Like you said, if every seed has a 50% chance of being male/female. The more chances you give the crop to BE female the better the chance you will get your desired outcome.

In this case, you'd be running 20 different experiments. All at 50%. If I only ran 2 experiments, I'd hate my odds. If I ran 20, I'd take those any day.

And feminized seeds will of course increase your chances, but no one is arguing that point.

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Originally Posted by Balkey

If you have 2 pots, and germinate 20 seeds, you DO increase your chances of getting 2 females. No one is saying that this is concrete.

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Ah, but see, we're not talking about just germinating the seeds, we're talking about GROWING them. So you're going to grow 20 plants in hopes of 2 females? Well, best of luck to ya.

I'm not saying that it wouldn't, couldn't or shouldn't happen. By no means would I NOT want it to happen. From my experience with luck though, you only get so much. And sooner or later your method of mass-cropping and then trashing months of work to get a desired outcome is going to falter to it's knees with INEFFECTIVENESS.

Personally, I'd skip the bullshit and just get my hands on some feminized seeds.

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Originally Posted by Balkey

Like you said, if every seed has a 50% chance of being male/female. The more chances you give the crop to BE female the better the chance you will get your desired outcome.

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I understand that. And that is a valid method of getting MORE females.

But if we look at overall effectiveness of a grow-space that is limited by lets say, 2 plants, the less plants you have to use to accquire the desired outcome of 2 females (which is what we agreed that the grow-space is limited to) the more effective and efficient your grow-space is. It's a little thing I picked up from 5yrs of outdoor growing called LESS WORK MORE RESULTS.

Do you really want to have to tend to 10 or 20 plants only to throw them away and use a mere 2?! I don't see the logic there. Now I could understand if you could accomodate for like 6 plants. Then maybe you could germinate and GROW 8 plants for goodluck, but come on now...

Also, if the growspace can only support the completion of 2 plants to begin with, how intelligent would it be to try and grow 20 plants, or even 6 for that matter, in a setup that can only viably support 2?? Simply to try and get those 2 females...

If ya ask me I think people need to seriously start looking into feminization of seeds because if you want to talk about odds, well, as luck would have it the odds are better when you know what you're doing...

I was using 20 plants as an exaggeration to stress the point. But in all honesty, if you only have room to grow 2 plants, feminized seeds would be the way to go simply because you really can't take the chance of getting a male.

But generally speaking, the more plants you can grow until sexing, the better, IF you have the room.

:smokin::stoned::stoned::stoned:

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Originally Posted by Balkey

I was using 20 plants as an exaggeration to stress the point. But in all honesty, if you only have room to grow 2 plants, feminized seeds would be the way to go simply because you really can't take the chance of getting a male.

But generally speaking, the more plants you can grow until sexing, the better, IF you have the room.

:smokin::stoned::stoned::stoned:

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Agreed.

:jointsmile:

Feminized Marijuana Seeds <- Not the cheapest but for 3.5yrs straight I havn't had a single male from ANY of thier batches!!

What a coincidence, that's where I just bought my seeds from for the grow I am starting now. Those seeds sure do hurt my pocket though.:(:(:stoned:

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Originally Posted by Balkey

What a coincidence, that's where I just bought my seeds from for the grow I am starting now. Those seeds sure do hurt my pocket though.:(:(:stoned:

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Yea, but that's some money well spent if you ask me.

You figure each batch comes with 10 seeds. Each plant can produce clones and are %99.9 female.

The cost of one batch could pay for itsself with one seed...

Thanks to cloning I've been able to make my own personal seedbank by purchasing seeds on sale at NL, putting one or two into growth and the others into the freezer and STILL have 150+ Gram yields off more than one plant every fall. I have 200+ seeds from NL. (and NO, none of them are for sale.)

Not to mention my stash of bagseed collected over the years...

What strain did you purchase from them?

LR2, I have a very limited grow space and wanted a faster turnaround time. Trying my hands at LR2. What the hell right? hahaha

I've never tried a LR strain.

It looks cool. Short little fat cola. I think my next grow I'm going to try some LR.

Yea, 75 bones for 10 seeds is steep. But like I said before, if cost is the problem, shit, ONE plant could make up for the cost of all 10 seeds...

True, but with this strain I have to get some seeds if I want to continue the strain so, my first harvest will be shitty. BUT, I shall learn some shit about it at least, so it won't all be wasted.

Until I am rich, I cannot consider buying seeds that I would be unable to clone from. Sure would love to try Lowryder though.

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Originally Posted by MRB041

not sure if this is accurate, if u plant 4, u will have the same chance of having at least 2 females as if u were to have at least 2males, 50%

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I'm really too stoned for maths but I will give it a go... :hippy:

50% is a common sense answer and a reasonable assumption for people who don't work with stats much. The actual probability of 4 seeds giving you (2F,2M) is 37.5%.

There may only be 4 seeds but there are 5 unordered possible outcomes each with it's own % probability of occurring.

A (4F, 0M) 6.25%
B (3F, 1M) 25%
C (2F, 2M) 37.5%
D (1F, 3M) 25%
E (0F, 4M) 6.25%

The % prob. of each outcome added together equals 100%.

To put it another way...

There is a 93.75% chance of getting at least one female plant from 4 seeds. (A+B+C+D)

At least 2 Females 68.75% (A+B+C)
At least 3 Females 31.25% (A+B)
4 Females 6.25% (A)
No Females 6.25% (E)

Or you could just figure out how to feminize the seeds yourself. It's really quite easy.

A lot easier than planting, growing, and caring for 20 plants when you have the means to only flower 4...

:wtf:

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There is a 93.75% chance of getting at least one female plant from 4 seeds. (A+B+C+D)

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What's funny about that is, there's the same exact chance of getting at least one MALE from 4 seeds...Hmm..

So one could say, "There is a 93.75% chance of getting at least one male plant from 4 seeds. (A+B+C+D)"

Care to try your luck?

:thumbsup: