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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeMartinez
My local Wal*Mart.
Why do you think we're still on the downward spiral, then?
I think it's the fact that we haven't addressed the myriad of root causes to our crisis...we're just treating the symptoms for now. I think we might hit some serious inflation issues in the near future, what with adding 700 billion to the money supply, which (at the end of the day) will equal roughly 6.3 trillion dollars in new money based on the fractional reserve system.
I attached a chart of the U.S. money supply...see that huge spike once you get to where we are now? That's not a good thing.
Well the problem is that 700 billion hasn't been added YET! And we are just now finding out how those funds will be used. In addition to this the problem is not just a local problem; it is an international problems and many of the World banks and governments have also just passed bills to put forth a bailout bill similar to the US. I believe Germany is proposing 500billion, Great Britain is only putting out like 70 Billion, and so on and so forth.
Until the entire international community puts those funds to use as well (they are in the same boat as us) then we will see a stagnant market at best. Currently the market is 'reacting' to something they shouldn't be.
There will be another decline soon. This is a short spike and we are sure to see it drop off again. I anticipate the Dow stabilizing somewhere in the 8500 range.
In addition to this who wins the election will play a major factor in what will happen to our stock market. Another reason I am very much against Obama. People don't realize that taxation on corporations directly effect everyone underneath.
YEAH!! let's stick it to those people that pay for our jobs, that pay for research and development of new goods, that give us benefits (well large corporations anyway). Let's screw those people who work in a competitive free market where they must compete against other companies to provider as low of a marketable price as possible!!!
Oh wait.. if we tax them more and hurt their profit lines.. then they'll have to protect their investors or else they'll back out of their companies. So let's cut pay scale, let's cut jobs, let's cut back on research and development, let's scale back what benefits we'll offer, and we'll have to raise the price of products to compensate for the taxation that's to come.
In addition, people don't realize that many small businesses do make more than 250k a year. I believe people have a misunderstanding what actually identifies a small business as a small business. It is these same small business owners that have recently been accounting for 70% of new jobs created in the United States.
Let's kiss that good bye.
These are all factors that also will affect the market.
We will know more about the economy in general once the US and the rest of the world are on the same page; we will know even MORE about our National economy once the election is over; which honestly I think to some degree the market is reacting to that as well since people have convinced themselves Obama will win the election (and maybe he will.. who knows; he does have the lead currently).
I have more I want to what effects us outside of what I've stated currently; but I'm pretty worn out and this is getting long winded. Maybe I'll come back and post a follow up.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
the dow is crapping out AGAIN today? it's getting so bad that you can't even bribe capitalists anymore!! HA!
the federal reserve stopped reporting M3 back in 2006 so the money supply chart posted earlier is the best estimate available:
FRB: H.6 Release--Discontinuance of M3
hey goldenboy, you're a financial wizard: can you explain what's happening in column 3 of this fed reserve banking chart? non-borrowed reserves seems like something that should be a positive number:
FRB: H.3 Release--Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions--October 9, 2008
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
the dow is crapping out AGAIN today? it's getting so bad that you can't even bribe capitalists anymore!! HA!
If you understood the stock market and had a firm grasp on what makes the economy churn then you would understand that the DJIA staying stagnant or even dropping was to be expected. The gains we saw yesterday were superficial and you should expect them to drop off again soon. Currently we are only down 50 points today; which considering what happened last week and then the Rally yesterday, is a much lower drop than what I was expecting. I was positive we'd see a 200-300 point drop, but then again the market hasn't closed yet and anything can happen.
I for one am not shocked and was anticipating the market to drop again after yesterday's rally. I have quite a bit of money I'm looking to reinvest shortly to buy up stocks at bargain basement prices. It's very rare that you get an opportunity like this. Maybe 1-2 times in your life time.
I am not as concerned as most people. The media is pandering to the nervous/scared crowd. It keeps people glued to their chairs and watching their station; which boosts ratings.. which allows them to sell more air time.
Don't believe everything you hear on the news. Remember that the news is a business too.. they need to make money and will market their news.. or really their opinion pieces that they try to pass off as news to certain demographics.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
hey jake,
thanks for that scary money supply chart...i agree with you about the threat of inflation from printing money...there is also another inflationary threat: interest inflation...foreign debt holders have uncle sam by the balls now...japan has been buying increasing amounts of US treasury notes, but they were making noise about reducing their US 'investments long before the subprime crisis broke wide open...when freddie and fannie failed, the US treasury got so scared of what japan might do that they directly contacted japanese financial institutions to beg them not to sell US treasury notes:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-treasury-reassures-japanese-investors/story.aspx?guid={B5CC7053-F4A5-4E9C-9DC3-383259C21157}
china is the second largest foreign holder of US treasury notes...in 2007, the bush administration tried to bully china into revaluing it's currency against the US dollar, and the chinese replied by threatening to sell their US treasury notes...the bush administration instantly dropped the threat:
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales - Telegraph
that is a good example of how the national debt is a greater threat to US national security than terrorism...foreign debt holders have the power to control/hurt the united states in ways that bin laden can only fantasize about
now the us treasury is back in japan and china, passing it's begging bucket around...if i recall correctly, ten years ago china owned about $100 billion in US treasury notes...now it owns about $520 billion...for a few years, chinese commies were buying about half of all new US treasury notes...during the red scares, the government warned people about commies hiding under our beds...more recently, they invited the commies to get into the beds with us...meanwhile, china is building a prosperous middle class that will be four or five times the size of the US middle class, which has been eroding as the manufacturing jobs are exported and replaced with service jobs and financial activity
thanks to the low and negative personal savings rates, the USA is dependant upon foreign countries to finance it's debts...these foreign countries are worried about US fiscal negligence and falling exchange rates so they naturally want higher interest rates to compensate them for the risk of holding US treasury notes...if that happens it will be like throwing an anchor out behind the US economy, but it will still be better than blowing a hole in the bottom of the ship by defaulting on US gov't financial committments
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
good luck with your investment strategy...one man's loss is another man's gain!
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
good luck with your investment strategy...one man's loss is another man's gain!
I lost about 11-12% this year prior to the Fannie and Freddie collapsing. I pulled out shortly after anticipating other markets to crash also. Looks like I was right. I would be in the crapper otherwise.
So I still lost money this year, but not as much as most people have.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
i didn't lose a cent...i got out of the stock market completely in the summer of 2001...it's tempting to throw it all back in while things are low, and ride it up again, but i don't trust the system at all now...i think the system is fixed to benefit a minority at the expense of the majority and when the minority screw it up for the rest of us, they get bailed out with our tax dollars
you'll get your money back but this roller coaster ride is going to continue for a while, and the dow jones is going to be knocked up and down everytime a new report comes out...i bet you could time your trades to cash in on the reporting schedule:
Report Schedule
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
i didn't lose a cent...i got out of the stock market completely in the summer of 2001...it's tempting to throw it all back in while things are low, and ride it up again, but i don't trust the system at all now...i think the system is fixed to benefit a minority at the expense of the majority and when the minority screw it up for the rest of us, they get bailed out with our tax dollars
you'll get your money back but this roller coaster ride is going to continue for a while, and the dow jones is going to be knocked up and down everytime a new report comes out...i bet you could time your trades to cash in on the reporting schedule:
Report Schedule
Investing is not short term and if you keep that mentality then that is the exact way that you lose.
If you think the system is fixed then I wonder what other conspiracies you believe in. You can figure out if a company is undervalued and profitable or if it's trading at what it's worth; or if a stock is overhyped and over valued.
The stock market does require a lot of research but it's not magic or voodoo like some people would want to believe. :wtf:
There's a reason why people pay close attention to trending.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
i am not much of a conspiracy theorist...i believe oswald shot kennedy...i believe man landed on the moon...i do not believe the rockerfellers or the bilderbergers or the jews control the world via their secret societies
but i know for a fact that a lot of people didn't play by the rules and it wiped out $?? trillions in capital around the world...this isn't the first time and it won't be the last...i like to gamble, but i don't lay bent bets with crooks
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
but i know for a fact that a lot of people didn't play by the rules and it wiped out $?? trillions in capital around the world...this isn't the first time and it won't be the last...i like to gamble, but i don't lay bent bets with crooks
If you honestly believe that then a man like Warren Buffet would be in the poor house. He's stuck it out thick and thin through the hard times in the market.
I am calling you out and I would like to see your evidence of said 'fact'.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
the evidence of said fact is the subprime crisis which is currently ravaging economies around the planet
i like warren buffet but he's one of the guys who is in on the fix...ya think he doesn't get different stock info than you? berkeshire hathaway controls $200 billion....he's too big to fail
BTW: i also believe al qaida and 19 muslim hijackers did 911...sometimes i feel like i'm in the minority on that one
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
To me, the 9/11 issue is too suspicious to call either way.
Back on topic, the Fed doesn't publish M3 anymore, so apparently it's not important.
We're supposed to be getting 3Q balance sheets at the end of this week, which will be a much better indicator of what's going to happen in the near future.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
the evidence of said fact is the subprime crisis which is currently ravaging economies around the planet
This is not evidence, like many of your posts this is your opinion. Economies trend also, they go up and down; that's just what they do for a number of reasons that I won't get into. Seeing as how you chose to try to take on Goldenboy on several economic topics and insist that you're right.. you should have the knowledge base to determine why this happens. It's not magic or voodoo and can often times be predicted.
I am by far no economic or investment genius but I foresaw the fall of the mortgage industry, as well as I saw this market crash coming and took measures necessary to protect myself.
Again; you state opinion in your rebuttal of the following statement I called you on:
but i know for a fact that a lot of people didn't play by the rules and it wiped out $??
Quote:
i like warren buffet but he's one of the guys who is in on the fix...ya think he doesn't get different stock info than you? berkeshire hathaway controls $200 billion....he's too big to fail
Do you think Warren Buffet always had that networth. You act as if he did not build up to it. Investment takes time. Investment is long term. The reason why Warren Buffet has 200 billion is because when everyone was pulling out of the market he would stay in and buy up stocks.
FYI, his mentor was Benjamin Graham; a person whose books I mention fairly frequently whenever the stock market is the topic. I suggest you go pick up The intelligent Investor and Security Analysis for some preliminary reading to get a basic understanding of how the stock market works and how to figure out what stocks are profitable and which are not.
Quote:
BTW: i also believe al qaida and 19 muslim hijackers did 911...sometimes i feel like i'm in the minority on that one
I should hope so since Bin Laden flat out said "we did it"
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
The cognitive dissidence displayed has led me to refrain from partaking in yet another circular argument. There are several posters here who operate strictly from an agenda standpoint, which has gotten boring as of lately.
A few points to make:
First off, there is such thing as a business cycle. :thumbsup:
Secondly, liquidation and recapitalization is the life blood of a recovering market. Right now, this is being artificially implemented. There are a great deal of reasons for doing so, one is to forestall a global currency crash. Money as we have today, is not real. It has ballooned to the point where economies that partake in fiat after a period of time require even more fictional measures to live. I truly believe that what we are experiencing now will be a constant decade function, where the need will only increase in a given period of time; until bailouts are occuring every month and band aids no longer work.
If unilateral (true) deregulation of the markets is not achieved, they will eventually implode. All fiat has failed, at a rate of 100%. It is only a matter of time. I only hope i am dead and gone when it does happen.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
ok daihashi, i'll explain it to you in more detail
if people were playing by the rules, why are fannie and freddie and AIG and lehman the subject of a federal inquiry in the usa? why is the FBI currently investigating the financial activities of 19 large corporations related to the subprime crisis?
mortgage inquiry and FBI investigation:
FT.com / Companies / Financial services - Mortgage collapse inquiry widened
i do not believe the financial industry played by the rules by gambling the rest of the world's money on risky mortgages...even you, a person who confesses to lack depth of insight on economic and investment matters, saw this mortgage crash coming...why is it so hard for you to believe the masters of the universe on wall street also saw this coming and did nothing to avert it, and even spread their bad decisions around the world, perhaps in an attempt to dilute the crash they saw coming by exporting bad investments to foreign banks without disclosing the risk?
regardless of regulation, financial institutions have a legal obligation to make prudent decisions with other people's money...i believe their fiscal negligence (a crime) borders on fraud (another crime)...people skirted around the rules to make bad decisions that rewarded them personally at the expense of the rest of the world...that's not just my opinion either: dozens of class action lawsuits have been filed against those people for "negligence, fraud, failure of financial statements to comply with GAAP, failure to disclose information regarding loan packages sold to investors, predatory lending, excessive fees, securities fraud, violations of state consumer protection laws, and many other types of substantive claims":
Kilpatrick Stockton LLP: Subprime and Credit Markets Litigation
Law.com - Criminal Prosecutions Predicted to Surge Over Financial Crisis
the crimes committed are not restricted to executives on wall street...the crimes extend all the way down through the system to the individual mortgage brokers on main street...corruption and crime infests the system - that violation of the public trust will take years to correct (if that is even possible)
it will be a cold day in hell before i trust them again, and judging by the dow jones, i think the invisible hand of the free markets is pissed off too
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
ok daihashi, i'll explain it to you in more detail
if people were playing by the rules, why are fannie and freddie and AIG and lehman the subject of a federal inquiry in the usa? why is the FBI currently investigating the financial activities of 19 large corporations related to the subprime crisis?
mortgage inquiry and FBI investigation:
FT.com / Companies / Financial services - Mortgage collapse inquiry widened
i do not believe the financial industry played by the rules by gambling the rest of the world's money on risky mortgages...even you, a person who confesses to lack depth of insight on economic and investment matters, saw this mortgage crash coming...why is it so hard for you to believe the masters of the universe on wall street also saw this coming and did nothing to avert it, and even spread their bad decisions around the world, perhaps in an attempt to dilute the crash they saw coming by exporting bad investments to foreign banks without disclosing the risk?
regardless of regulation, financial institutions have a legal obligation to make prudent decisions with other people's money...i believe their fiscal negligence (a crime) borders on fraud (another crime)...people skirted around the rules to make bad decisions that rewarded them personally at the expense of the rest of the world...that's not just my opinion either: dozens of class action lawsuits have been filed against those people for "negligence, fraud, failure of financial statements to comply with GAAP, failure to disclose information regarding loan packages sold to investors, predatory lending, excessive fees, securities fraud, violations of state consumer protection laws, and many other types of substantive claims":
Kilpatrick Stockton LLP: Subprime and Credit Markets Litigation
Law.com - Criminal Prosecutions Predicted to Surge Over Financial Crisis
the crimes committed are not restricted to executives on wall street...the crimes extend all the way down through the system to the individual mortgage brokers on main street...corruption and crime infests the system - that violation of the public trust will take years to correct (if that is even possible)
it will be a cold day in hell before i trust them again, and judging by the dow jones, i think the invisible hand of the free markets is pissed off too
Honestly debating with you is like talking to my 2nd grade teacher who insisted I was wrong when I tried to explain exponential power (yes this is a real story).
In any case, I never said I had lack of knowledge.. I said I'm not an expert. I definitley have a fairly good understanding of how things work. Something I can't say the same of for you. I totally understand why Goldenboy avoids you now.
Also your points here have nothing to do with the stock market and "a fact that a lot of people didn't play by the rules and it wiped out $??". The mortgage and loan crisis is a predecessor to the economic crash. We were talking specifically about Stock market investment in the dialogue we had going.
You're really stretching to try to defend your statement. Stay on topic, but no difference to me; you are not a person I can debate with because you are not open to ideas outside your own.
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
"Honestly debating with you is like talking to my 2nd grade teacher"
- sorry if it sounds like i'm talking down to you but you're asking me to explain the painfully obvious like so:
"your points here have nothing to do with the stock market and "a fact that a lot of people didn't play by the rules and it wiped out $??". The mortgage and loan crisis is a predecessor to the economic crash. We were talking specifically about Stock market investment in the dialogue we had going."
- the stock market doesn't exist independently of people in financial industry who don't play by the rules...that's like claiming enron's stock performance had nothing to do with the crimes committed by their executives
"In any case, I never said I had lack of knowledge.. I said I'm not an expert"
- lacking depth of insight means the same thing as not being an expert...it wasn't an insult...i lack depth of insight into many financial issues too...i'm still waiting for someone to explain what 'non-borrowed reserves' means on the federal reserve link i posted earlier in this thread because i lack the depth of insight to understand the term even though i know exactly what the individual words mean
insight
Noun
1. a penetrating understanding, as of a complex situation or problem
2. the ability to perceive clearly or deeply the inner nature of things
Collins Essential English Dictionary 2nd Edition 2006 © HarperCollins Publishers 2004, 2006
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
To ensnare corruption as the chief cause of economic collapse is naive. The Keynesian model (AD/AS) boldly predicts such booms and busts. I am not a Keynesian, but failure to recognize its dominance in the field of economics is a mistake. The reason i am not Keynesian is because it relies on the false assumption that governments are perfect, and people are not. Where in fact, governments are a product of the people, so i must decline such a tempting school of thought.
JMK's proofs are perfectly correct, and are based on a very interesting principle. "in the long run, we are all dead". Therefore, mortgaging the future for the present (short run) is how our current economic models and actions work. The question begs to be asked, "when do we eventually pay the piper?"
The markets will recover no doubt about it. That is in fact the business cycle...
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
i do not believe i am lacking informed judgement by stating the fact that issuing instantly-approved risky mortgages and reselling them without proper disclosure is not part of any legal business cycle
that would mean the FBI is naive for investigating 19 large corporations in relation to the subprime meltdown when all the answers they were looking for could be found in book keynes wrote prior to the great depression
call me naive if you want, but i think people are going to end up in a cell because of their role in bringing down the global economy, and i am looking forward to seeing justice served
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Since I'm done wasting my breath debating you on this.. I will reply to everything you posted in a non political/non business way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maladroit
"Honestly debating with you is like talking to my 2nd grade teacher"
- sorry if it sounds like i'm talking down to you but you're asking me to explain the painfully obvious like so:
I asked you to explain in regards to the topic of which our dialogue consisted. That was stock market investing. I did not ask you how the Mortgage crisis effected it. The question that was posed was a generic one and required a basic rebuttal comprising of how to invest in the stock market with everything else aside.
Instead of answering this question directly; you chose to "prove yourself right" by going around the question and indirectly attacking it.
I did not think you were talking down to me at all in your repost. I have much thicker skin than that.
Quote:
"your points here have nothing to do with the stock market and "a fact that a lot of people didn't play by the rules and it wiped out $??". The mortgage and loan crisis is a predecessor to the economic crash. We were talking specifically about Stock market investment in the dialogue we had going."
- the stock market doesn't exist independently of people in financial industry who don't play by the rules...that's like claiming enron's stock performance had nothing to do with the crimes committed by their executives
Again, we were not discussing how the rest of the financial industry ties into the stock market. We were discussing investment and the stock market itself in a general sense. You seem to fail to realize how you did not actually answer my question but rather went around it to make it appear as if you were right and my questioning you was unfounded. You do this in many of your posts. Most of the time I let it slide but I feel it's important that people see this. Hell, maybe you don't even realize you're doing it; although I doubt it because it happens in every post you do. Look at the "what do you think?" thread where I make a simple comment how the person's comment wasn't exactly tasteful and they were criticizing McCain supporters of something similar. It was a personal observation of mine but you chose to chime in to try to be right and prove me to be wrong.
Sorry buddy... you can't prove me wrong on a personal observation since that would be my own opinion and an opinion is neither right nor wrong.
Quote:
"In any case, I never said I had lack of knowledge.. I said I'm not an expert"
- lacking depth of insight means the same thing as not being an expert...it wasn't an insult...i lack depth of insight into many financial issues too...i'm still waiting for someone to explain what 'non-borrowed reserves' means on the federal reserve link i posted earlier in this thread because i lack the depth of insight to understand the term even though i know exactly what the individual words mean
insight
Noun
1. a penetrating understanding, as of a complex situation or problem
2. the ability to perceive clearly or deeply the inner nature of things
Collins Essential English Dictionary 2nd Edition 2006 © HarperCollins Publishers 2004, 2006
Now you're arguing semantics and being slightly condescending. While I may not be an expert, I do not lack insight. Saying I have lack of insight is very similar to if you were to call me ignorant; since you like to quote definitions here is the definition of ignorant for you:
ignorant
One entry found.
Main Entry:
ig·no·rant Listen to the pronunciation of ignorant
Pronunciation:
\ˈig-n(ə-)rənt\
Function:
adjective
Date:
14th century
1 a: destitute of knowledge or education <an ignorant society> ; also : lacking knowledge or comprehension of the thing specified <parents ignorant of modern mathematics> b: resulting from or showing lack of knowledge or intelligence
While the definitions are not identical, they are very similar.
Furthermore I was not using the word expert in the way you tried to apply it; I used the word expert as in "Novice, Intermediate, Advanced, and Expert".
I would say I lie somewhere between Intermediate and Advanced.
This is further evidence on how you just can't let a topic go and must insist on being right.
Thank you for the tons of examples you have exemplified over your numerous posts for me to reveal your true nature. :thumbsup:
Again I'm done debating things with you; but I may take time out to call you out when you try to act like you're above it all. :hippy:
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
sorry to make you waste your breath...i enjoyed our discussions...happy trails!
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
I think this was engineered by the elite that really run this country. I think the first bailout attempt for $700 billion w/ only 3 pages was a scam. They knew everyone would get pissed off. We contacted our reps and they *surprise* came threw and voted no. Then it comes back, filled with an additional $150 billion in bullshit and 400+ pages and it passes. WTF? I think they planned it to happen that way. Just like the Patriot Act was so conveniently available after 9/11. Back to the volcano ... :hippy:
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5016169
I think this was engineered by the elite that really run this country. I think the first bailout attempt for $700 billion w/ only 3 pages was a scam. They knew everyone would get pissed off. We contacted our reps and they *surprise* came threw and voted no. Then it comes back, filled with an additional $150 billion in bullshit and 400+ pages and it passes. WTF? I think they planned it to happen that way. Just like the Patriot Act was so conveniently available after 9/11. Back to the volcano ... :hippy:
Look at the 17th amendment. There you will find the real reason such unethical practices (democracy) are now all too common...
I am as libertarian as anyone you know, but the fact remains, i do not want to suffer, nor do i want to see my fellow citizen(s) suffer. Things have to change from the outside in, but in order for that to happen, we have to press for that very change.
Does that constitute as an inside out change? Who knows, but the fact of the matter is popular choice is not always the "right" one. Natural mechanism's will begin to expose this. The "right" choice is not always the best choice. Sooner than later, the line between best/ right will not be nearly as gray.
Live now will not always be an option... Be thankful if you are truly able to be bestowed with that option:jointsmile:
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Dow drops below 9,000, S&P nearing 900
memory lane:
july 30 1997: dow jones closed at 8,254 (roughly where it was earlier this morning)
july 1 1997 hong kong returned to china (roughly where it was in 1898)
