i was AWOL for 7 days. they had the cops after me within a couple of days. i went back on my own. i got NJP'd (non-judicial punishment). basically the commanding officer has his way with you officially, but no judges, brig time etc.
i got a reduction in rank (e-2 to e-1), forfeiture of pay (for 2 months, might have been half, can't remember), 60 days of restriction (can't leave base at all, sometimes you can't leave a certain area) and 60 days EPD (extra puntitive duty).
if he doesn't go back, SOON, he's screwed. he's honestly probably already screwed. he's looking at a courts-martial and brig time with a dis-honorable discharge, more than likely.
that's a felony so good luck with life after that.
good luck with the talk!
-shake