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Today CNN moved Nevada from "Tossup" to "Leans Obama," making it 291 for Obama vs. 163 for McCain, with only 270 required to win.
Apparently most of the polling shows a tightening of the nationwide margin, but a WIDENING of most margins on a state-by-state basis. For example, some of the states that had leaned toward Obama are now considered safe. Making that kind of change to the map does not affect the electoral count that CNN reports, but it does add confidence to the count.
Another update today, and more bad news for McCain.
CNN moved North Dakota from â??Lean McCainâ? to â??Toss-upâ? â?? meaning three electoral votes that had been counted for McCain are now considered up for grabs.
The other moves do not affect the elctoral count the way they project it. Louisiana has moved from â??Lean McCainâ? to â??Safe McCain,â? which does not change the count, but makes the prediction more firm. And Arizona has moved from â??Safe McCainâ? to â??Lean McCain,â? which also does not change the count, but opens some possibility that McCain could lose his own state if it countinues to slide.
With 270 required to win, Obama now has 291, and McCain has 160, with 87 toss-up, according to CNN predictions. Anything could happen, and the polls could be wrong, but the trend is leaning Obama in a big way at this point.
RCP shows Obama 311, McCain 142, toss-up 85.
I like theirs better, at least they are less biased than CNNQuote:
Originally Posted by dragonrider
RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map