McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
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Originally Posted by rhizome
F'rnstance, both polls mentioned here automatically do not poll anyone who doesn't have, and answer during the day, a landline telephone.
How many folks under the age of 50 do you know who are home to answer their phone during a weekday?
What about people who have supplemented their land line with a cell phone. Cell phones are relatively cheap now and it's becoming common day occurence. I for one do not even own a land line. Just a cell phone. A great number of my friends also have gotten rid of their land lines in favor of a full time cell phone.
It seems that this is becoming increasingly popular. So while you ask that question in attempts to point out it's flaw, I present to you another factor that is not taken into account that levels the playing field of the question you poised.
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Poll demographics are all screwed up.
Polls are just polls, but they are all we have to go on until election day.
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Remember- it's in the interest of the media to make this seem as close as possible, so that more folks will watch the coverage, so that they can sell more advertising.
Well, seeing as how polls are just polls I doubt the media are conspiring together in order to make pollsters like Rasmussen and Gallup skew results in their favor. To sell advertising. That would be a hell of a lot of work and money. It doesn't make sense fiscally.
What they can do in order to sell more advertising is dramatize the election, but they have no control over any polls except the ones the media does themselves.
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Take a look @ total #'s of individual donors to each campaign, volunteer hours logged, in-kind donations, registration #'s- it's not all that close.
The last I checked we voted by dropping a name in a ballet and not by the amount of volunteers or donations a member has.
First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.
It's hard to take your argument seriously with the back peddling.
I will agree with you on one thing though.... no one can really know how this election is going to go down. All we can do is guess by poll data that is available to us and the current events we read about/see on TV news networks.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by daihashi
First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.
Meant that as a response to the post saying that it was a close race- my point was that we can't extract much hard data from the polls in question. To some extant, you've reinforced my undelying point- lots of folks out there on cell-only, they tend to be younger ( look @ cell provider marketing- they've done their market analysis), and everybodies #'s say that under-30's are trending D this cycle.
I don't think it's a media conspiracy- but when McCain actually has a slight bump in his #'s, of course the papers wanna headline it. Each media outlet acting in it's own self-interest, not a conspiracy. They stick " McCain takes Lead!" on the front page, everybody says " WTF?", and they sell a lot of papers. It's a classic " man bites dog" story.
My point in mentioning the state by states is to look at long term trends, over multiple data sources. I don't feel that I've backpedeled in any way.
F'rinstance, McCain made the mistake today of not clearly disagreeing with a supporter who suggested that a draft is needed. This'll be all over Youtube tonight, tomorrow morning's #'s will be down... but three days from now, it'll all level out.
It's like playing the market- a good day doesn't make a solid pick.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by rhizome
Meant that as a response to the post saying that it was a close race- my point was that we can't extract much hard data from the polls in question. To some extant, you've reinforced my undelying point- lots of folks out there on cell-only, they tend to be younger ( look @ cell provider marketing- they've done their market analysis), and everybodies #'s say that under-30's are trending D this cycle.
You've failed to prove how buying a cell phone and not having a land line would skew these polls. I list my cell phone number as my home phone number on all applications. The polls don't ask you if you have a physical land line; they just ask for your home number.
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I don't think it's a media conspiracy- but when McCain actually has a slight bump in his #'s, of course the papers wanna headline it. Each media outlet acting in it's own self-interest, not a conspiracy. They stick " McCain takes Lead!" on the front page, everybody says " WTF?", and they sell a lot of papers. It's a classic " man bites dog" story.
True and I see what you're saying now. I can agree with this. After their media frenzy with Obama coming to a near halt they need someone else to boost their ratings now.
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My point in mentioning the state by states is to look at long term trends, over multiple data sources. I don't feel that I've backpedeled in any way.
F'rinstance, McCain made the mistake today of not clearly disagreeing with a supporter who suggested that a draft is needed. This'll be all over Youtube tonight, tomorrow morning's #'s will be down... but three days from now, it'll all level out.
It's like playing the market- a good day doesn't make a solid pick.
I see what you're saying now; this post explained alot of confusion I had about your earlier posts. I agree polls are never supposed to project the long term. It's impossible to do that in polls just because as humans we are going to change our mind more often than not.
Going by what the polls currently say.. I'd be inclined to think that if the elections happened today that Obama would be in for some serious hurt. All I can go by is the polls and how it would effect things if the election were to go down today.
Really that's how you have to look at the polls because it's impossible to project the curve of people's opinions over any sustained duration of time.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by daihashi
You've failed to prove how buying a cell phone and not having a land line would skew these polls. I list my cell phone number as my home phone number on all applications. The polls don't ask you if you have a physical land line; they just ask for your home number.
Polling companies routinely eliminate cell # prefixes, as they can not know that the phone is normally physically in the geographical area being polled.
Cells are mobile.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by rhizome
Polling companies routinely eliminate cell # prefixes, as they can not know that the phone is normally physically in the geographical area being polled.
Cells are mobile.
I'll have to ask why I haven't been taken off the poll then :thumbsup:
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
You do realize that this can be confirmed thru the use of "teh Google", right?
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by daihashi
First you try to pin down the polls P4B used, and then I bring up a second set of pollings and you mention how it's the electoral vote that counts; which is true.. but then I rebuttal by pointing out historically only 9.3% of presidents in history have won the electoral college without the popular vote. So in turn you say that all polls are screwed up.
but if it aint fox it aint reputable/truthfull i thought. or atleast that's how you sound when afew others post things.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
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Originally Posted by texas grass
but if it aint fox it aint reputable/truthfull i thought. or atleast that's how you sound when afew others post things.
Did you chime in just to try to insult me? Fox news is not true news it's conservative activism much like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh. However it does give you information to look up and verify on your own as does CNN, CSPAN or any other so called 'news networks'. They're all in it for show; the real information requires people to dig for.
I mentioned rasmussen and gallup; I didn't mention fox. I'm confused as to why you would try to slam me over something irrelevant. As a matter of fact when I post links I try to make sure not to use a fox news link because I know everyone here will jump all over it.
Try to be a little more sly and stealthy when you are trying to bait me. I would think that you would have better things to do with your time than to write 1 liners but I guess not. So, unless you have something to add to the actual topic at hand I will be ceasing our interaction here.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
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Originally Posted by texas grass
but if it aint fox it aint reputable/truthfull i thought. or atleast that's how you sound when afew others post things.
And if I sound critical of others it's often because they post poor sources for their information. Scarce blogs, websites that are stamped with democrat or people who have been known to be largely biased to the left.
You would be equally critical if I posted no sources or sources from, apparently, Fox News.
McCain grabs lead in latest US presidential poll
good!!
i hate EVERYTHING obama stands for~ He is a FAKE!!!
