This thing is kind of fun.
CNN Electoral Map Calculator - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com
This electoral map shows you how each state is leaning according to the current state-by-state polling --- states safe for each candidate, states leaning toward each candidate, and tossup states. And it totals up the electoral votes for each candidate if the election were held today.
Right now Obama has 264 electoral votes either safe or leaning his way, and McCain has 174. There are 100 tossup electoral votes up for grabs right now. You need 270 total to win.
So right now, assuming everything went according to this map, Obama is only 6 electoral votes away from winning and McCain is 96 electoral votes away. When you look at the national polls overall, it's only a slight advantage to Obama, but when you look at these electoral vote counts, it translates into a near landslide.
Honestly, unless there is a huge game-changer in the next few weeks, I do not see any way for McCain to make up this difference. Right now, if Obama wins all his safe and leaning states, all he has to do is pick up ONE tossup state to win. If McCain picks up all his safe and leaning states, he still has to win ALL SEVEN tossups to win. It is a huge advantage for Obama right now.
The fun thing about the map is that it allows you to change who wins each state and who wins the tossups so you can see some hypothetical scenarios. For example, I gave Obama Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. And I gave McCain, Nevada, Missouri, Colorado, and North Carolina. The result was 324 Obama to 214 McCain --- not even close, a 100 point advantage to Obama, 50 votes more than he needed to win. Who knows how it will actually go? But it's fun to play with the different scenarios.
