Glorious Catastrophe in the Middle East

Glorious 'catastrophe' in the Middle East
Daily Star (Lebanon) ^ | Friday, March 04, 2005 | By David Ignatius


There's an obscure branch of mathematics known as "catastrophe theory," which looks at how a small perturbation in a previously stable system can suddenly produce dramatic change. A classic example of the theory is the way a bridge, after bearing immense weight for many years, can suddenly collapse because of a new stress.

We are now watching a glorious catastrophe take place in the Middle East. The old system that had looked so stable is ripping apart, with each beam pulling another down as it falls. The sudden stress that produced the catastrophe was the American invasion of Iraq two years ago. But this Arab power structure has been rotting at the joints for a generation. The real force that's bringing it down is public anger.

It's hard not to feel giddy watching the dominoes fall. In Lebanon, "people power" forced the resignation Monday of Syria's puppet government; in Egypt, the Pharaonic Hosni Mubarak agreed Saturday to allow other candidates to challenge his presidency for life; in Iraq, the momentum of January's election is still propelling the nation forward, despite bickering politicians and brutal suicide bombers.

But catastrophic change is dangerous, even when it's bringing down a system people detest. This is not a time for American triumphalism, or for gloating and lecturing to the Arabs. That kind of arrogance got us into trouble in Iraq during the first year of occupation. It was only when Iraqis began to take control of their own destinies that this project began to go right. The same rule holds for Lebanon, Egypt and the rest. America can help by keeping on the pressure, but it's their revolution.

Here are some warning flags about challenges ahead. My list is drawn from conversations this week with Arabs who are part of the new revolution. They worry that Washington, in its current giddy mood, may miss the danger signs.

The crucial issue for Lebanon is the role of Hizbullah. This Shiite militia is the best-organized political force in the country, and it's now at a crossroads. Hizbullah cannot remain the "A Team" of terrorism and also help build a new democracy in Lebanon. An encouraging sign is that the party's secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, met quietly Monday night in Beirut with Samir Franjieh, one of the leaders of the pro-democracy opposition. They discussed a possible deal whereby Hizbullah would agree to disarm its militia and join a new government, so long as that government wasn't openly anti-Syrian and Hizbullah was allowed to keep its "resistance" squads. That's a steep price, but getting Hizbullah inside the tent of political change might be worth it.

For Syria's leaders, the issue is survival. Until recently, Syrian strategists had been telling me about their "sandwich strategy" for squeezing America in Iraq between a Syrian-backed insurgency and Iranian pressure. Now it's Damascus that's in the sandwich, and there are signs that President Bashar Assad realizes his best hope for survival lies with the United States. That's one of the benefits of catastrophic change: In the ensuing chaos, each player has to worry he will be sold out by its allies. Hizbullah must fear that Assad is about to cut a deal with America; meanwhile, Assad must worry that Nasrallah will make a deal first.

The biggest danger of all is Iran's bid to manipulate the new government in Iraq. Already, there are signs of its influence. The ambitious Ahmed Chalabi announced he was quitting the race for prime minister last month, reportedly the day after he met with Iran's ambassador to Baghdad, who apparently warned him to step back. That's scary; so is the recent demand by the head of the Iranian-backed Badr Brigade that he be given the post of interior minister. To check Iran's influence in Baghdad, the United States must make clear its "red lines." The chief American demand should be that the key security portfolios of defense, interior and intelligence must remain in friendly Iraqi hands.

An interesting idea for squeezing Iran comes from an Iraqi Sunni leader named Mithal Alusi, who's visiting Washington this week. He suggests inviting dissident Iranian Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri to the holy city of Najaf to explain his view that political rule by mullahs is incompatible with Islam. That would make Tehran think twice about meddling in Iraq.

There's no stopping the Middle East's glorious catastrophe now that it has begun. We are careening around the curve of history, and it's useful to remember a basic rule for navigating slippery roads. Once you're in the curve, you can't hit the brakes. The only way for America to keep this car on the road is to keep its foot on the accelerator.

it really is an amazing thing to watch what is going on in the middle east!!even the new york times and the london telegraph are beginning to ask"were we wrong?"it's time for alot of people to eat crow..

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Originally Posted by amsterdam

it really is an amazing thing to watch what is going on in the middle east!!even the new york times and the london telegraph are beginning to ask"were we wrong?"it's time for alot of people to eat crow..

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Howdy amsterdam,

That's a big 10-4 ! Do ya notice,that there ain't any replies by liberal jihadi supporters ? I posted this article at MariHemp,as well,and there ain't no liberals replying to it there,either...lol.

Have a good one..:D

YOU SPOKE TOO SOON!
Im all for the middle easterners getting their freedom but, WAR was NOT NECESSARY.

"Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on
a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of
it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people
don't want war neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in
Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the
country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to
drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist
dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no
voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.
That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked,
and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the
country to danger. It works the same in any country." - Hermann Goering.

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Do ya notice,that there ain't any replies by liberal jihadi supporters ? I posted this article at MariHemp,as well,and there ain't no liberals replying to it there,either...lol.

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Them bastard jihad supporting liberals, they'll be the death of this country!

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Originally Posted by Nullific

YOU SPOKE TOO SOON!
Im all for the middle easterners getting their freedom but, WAR was NOT NECESSARY.



Them bastard jihad supporting liberals, they'll be the death of this country!

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Howdy Nullific,

I got rid of the quote by the nazi..my girlfriend is Jewish,and I don't quote no daggum stinkin nazis.

Arabs only respect power-war was NECESSARY .. in order for them to realize-that resistance is FUTILE ..

Congratulations, you've missed the point completely.

torog, you sound like General Custer!!

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Originally Posted by Torog

Howdy Nullific,

I got rid of the quote by the nazi..my girlfriend is Jewish,and I don't quote no daggum stinkin nazis.

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That's no reason to not quote Nazis. In fact, it's all the more reason to look into what they did more closely, to examine their hatred and their violence and their deceitful rise to power and how Bush... Oh wait, I was talking about Nazis, right? :D

flesh should read a history book if she need's to learn about nazi's.that's why we run circles around people with uninformed opinion's like her's.what a waste of space.that's why we run the show.work for us now or work for us later!