The Democrats -- Iowa caucus edition

It seems like the most active threads are about Ron Paul, so I thought maybe some talk about the Democrats might offer some variety. I will discuss the three major candidates and what I think their chances of winning are. Please feel to chime in with any comments, thoughts, whatever.

Hillary Clinton: Here we have the "conventional wisdom" candidate. She is also farthest to the political right of the "major candidates" among the Democrats. She is seen by pundits and many Democrats as "establishment," and for good reason. She is leading in most of the national polls, yet ironically I would argue is least likely to win the Iowa caucus.

Chance of winning: I will say about 25 to 30% Yeah, that seems low. I will explain why later.

Barack Obama: This is the "it" candidate to a lot of people. His charisma is undeniable. He can use big words without making people feel stupid -- a special gift to politicians (see Kerry, John). He speaks broadly of "change", and many young people find this appealing. But is charisma enough? Likely, yes!

Chance of winning: I think between 30 and 35%.

John Edwards: Media would have us think this is the "odd man out." Not so fast. Of all the Democrats, he has the surest turnout base. He is the most liberal of the big 3, though he doesn't come off that way. For whatever reason, many think Obama is more liberal. Anyway...

Chance of winning: I think between 35 and 40%.

Why do I handicap the way I do? "Edwards?!?!?! This guy is a moron." Well, maybe I am. But here is an explanation.

First, Edwards has the most established political base in Iowa. He has a machine there, who is the most sure to get out. Clinton and Obama are relying on newer voters. These people are less likely to be reliable. However, this is not the only reason.

The Democratic (and NOT the Republican) caucuses allow those that support candidates that are not "viable" (15%) to switch their vote. I believe that a plurality of these people go to Edwards -- pretty much all of Kucinich's people, a lot of Richardson's, some of Biden's, and a plurality of Dodd's. Gravel's supporters, all 4 of them, are a wildcard. Clinton probably gets a plurality of Biden's, and some of Richardson's and Dodd's. Obama might get some Biden toaster leavings, but might get healthy support from some some others.

If the weather is really bad, I will bump Edwards up to 50%.

This is all just silly predictions -- but it's fun! What do you think?