Say Farewell to American Supremacy

[RamblerGambler]

WASHINGTON â?? Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. and its dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictions for the world in 2025.

The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.

The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil fields, strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.

Analysts also warn that the same kind of organized crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country. The report is silent on which one.

It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or wither away under security problems and water and food shortages brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4 billion.

The potential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is now, as the world's population competes for declining and shifting food, water and energy resources.

Despite a more precarious world situation, the report also says al-Qaida's terrorist franchise could decay "sooner than people think." It cites its growing unpopularity in the Muslim world, where it kills most of its victims.

"The prospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," the report states.

The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.

The report, a year in the making, also suggests the world may complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the U.S. dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among other national currencies.

U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems.

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

[maladroit]

it would be nice to have someone else in charge for a while...hopefully it will be someone who isn't blowing stuff up and shooting anyone who objects to being shot at

[thcbongman]

From your source:




"Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" is the fourth unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible "futures," we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.



Take the blinders off. America is declining in terms of power, but to say farewell so soon, shows your Anti-American bent. You don't look at facts, just what you want to hear.

[maladroit]

how about 'au revoir'? is that anti-american too?

[thcbongman]

Bist du nicht verstehen? The eagarness to make such a statement, you'd be a fool to deny it.

[maladroit]

ich verstehe nationalismus!

rambler is not the only one to frame that report in such a manner...it's not anti-american:

U.S. world dominance fading: intelligence agency (http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/11/21/us-power.html)

National Intelligence Council report: sun setting on the American century - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5202497.ece)

American Dominance 'Set to Wane,' Says Intelligence Report (http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=75015)

[thcbongman]

If you think I'm a nationalist, you are on crack.

Also considering I said America is declining, but it is still the superpower. When the military starts withdrawing from various bases around the world, you can say it's the end. Until that day, it's too early to say farewell.

[maladroit]

i don't think there is enough difference between 'dominance fading' and 'farewell to supremacy' to justify your accusation of anti-americanism...the report suggests that america could give up the throne within 20 years: is the national intelligence council anti-american too?

usa closing military bases around the world:

Online NewsHour: Pentagon Proposes Closing Almost 180 U.S. Military Bases -- May 13, 2005 (http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/jan-june05/bases_5-13.html)

US Army to Close Five More Bases in Germany | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 11.07.2007 (http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,2679079,00.html)

United States to close Sardinia military base | AFP | Find Articles at BNET (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmafp/is_/ai_n15869513)

[thcbongman]

i don't think there is enough difference between 'dominance fading' and 'farewell to supremacy' to justify your accusation of anti-americanism...the report suggests that america could give up the throne within 20 years: is the national intelligence council anti-american too?

Do you have blinders on too? Don't you not see the initial quote above? They didn't predict the future, the simply projected every possible scenario of possible futures. "Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible "futures," we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss. "

Yes they are possibilities, some that are developing, but how do you know they will pan out? He used the report to demonstrate to say America's power has ended, the implication in the language is there.

[RamblerGambler]

Ich verstehe auch. If I'm anti-american, that's news to me. I sought to discuss the evolving world, not scorn my country. Look at the difference between this report and the one issued 4 years ago, when it was projected that America would continue to dominate both militarily and economically for the foreseeable future, while democracy would continue to flourish around the globe, .
NIC - Mapping the Global Future (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html)

Now it appears this future is not to be.
Devilstower:the central points of the NIC assessment are that 2025 will see a world where the US has declining influence, where free market economies are losing out to state-controlled capitalism, where democracy is imperiled, and an unstable set of political rivals skirmish over dwindling resources.

Others have said it before me, but we now get to witness the butterfly effect of 8 years of policy brought to us by the letter W.
Devilstower: you've heard of the butterfly effect, right? That's the bit where small effects now can have large effects in distance time or place. Just think of this as the Republican Buzzard Effect, wherein large scale incompetence and massive bad decisions now turn into even more massive catastrophic screw ups for the future.

[lunarose]

I don't know I'd kind of want to see some of their past reports and see how accurate they were before putting too much into it.

[JakeMartinez]

There's a vast difference between being anti-american and being rational.

[killerweed420]

Ich verstehe auch. If I'm anti-american, that's news to me. I sought to discuss the evolving world, not scorn my country. Look at the difference between this report and the one issued 4 years ago, when it was projected that America would continue to dominate both militarily and economically for the foreseeable future, while democracy would continue to flourish around the globe, .
NIC - Mapping the Global Future (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html)

Now it appears this future is not to be.

Others have said it before me, but we now get to witness the butterfly effect of 8 years of policy brought to us by the letter W.
We won't have to worry about it anyway. A meteor is supposed to hit us in 2012. So party like its 1999.lol

[RamblerGambler]

Ah, how foolish of me. there's always an upside to the end of the world.:jointsmile:

[dragonrider]

The future seems pretty uncertain right now, with the consequeces of years of bad economic policies and bad environmental policies seeming to come to a head. There are some perilous scenarios for the future, like economic collapse or serious disruption brought on by climate change. But there are also some decent possible outcomes too, if we do the right things and act soon. We have just as much chance to make it through the next few years as any other country does, and a better chance than some.

I do not see the future so much as a decline of America --- I think there will probably be a rise of other nations. There are so many countries who have rapidly expanding economies and huge potential for future expansion. I think they will continue to rise. In 20 years or so, the US might no longer be the one dominant player in the world, but will share top status with equals or be surpassed by others. But it may not be because we declined as much as we were passsed up by others with more capacity to expand. There is a big difference in those two scenarios. But I think Americans would still have a little trouble adjusting to the idea that we are no longer top dog, regardless of whether it happened because we declined in power or were surpassed. We like being on top.

[overgrowthegovt]

The fall of an Evil Empire is approaching! I'm not anti-American in terms of its people, but its government is the most dangerous enemy to freedom and peace since Mao, except much more so, since they bully the ENTIRE world.

[thcbongman]

Ich verstehe auch. If I'm anti-american, that's news to me. I sought to discuss the evolving world, not scorn my country. Look at the difference between this report and the one issued 4 years ago, when it was projected that America would continue to dominate both militarily and economically for the foreseeable future, while democracy would continue to flourish around the globe, .
NIC - Mapping the Global Future (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html)

Now it appears this future is not to be.

Others have said it before me, but we now get to witness the butterfly effect of 8 years of policy brought to us by the letter W.

Exactly. Projections change. Who knows, Obama might be the greatest human being alive and continue to perpetuate further growth and changing the outlook in 5 years. However that's unlikely but am I any more wrong than you are? Not exactly because we can't predict the future. If you sought to discuss the ever evolving world, it's such a bold proclamation to "Say Farewell to American Supremancy."

Like Dragonrider touched on, there's more variables in play, not just GWB fuck-ups, or how much our country is declining. Most importantly the shift of economic power from west to east, which has been happening for quite sometime.

America's sun has to set sometime, it's destiny. History has shown a rise and fall to all empires and America is no different. It's just not quite yet.

[apocolips31]

The fall of an Evil Empire is approaching! I'm not anti-American in terms of its people, but its government is the most dangerous enemy to freedom and peace since Mao, except much more so, since they bully the ENTIRE world.

Right......:wtf: Who would have been a better superpower I ask you that actually had a chance to become one? Russia? China? Ask your self this, which country voluntarily gave power back to the people of Europe after WWII?

[maladroit]

what happened to the country that gave power back to the people after WWII? why did it switch to wars of aggression, concentration camps, torture chambers, and rape rooms? perhaps american supremacy wouldn't be fading at this point if uncle sam hadn't lost his moral compass a few decades ago...economically, america is still on top but the serfs lost respect for their feudal lord and his war chest is bleeding gold coins

[apocolips31]

I am not saying America is perfect as no country is, but to call America an evil empire? Here is another question for you all. If it had been the USA which collapsed in the early 90's instead of the Soviet Union do you think they would have been a better world leader? Would their tanks have stopped in Germany or continue to press forward?

[GoldenBoy812]

Devilstower:the central points of the NIC assessment are that 2025 will see a world where the US has declining influence, where free market economies are losing out to state-controlled capitalism, where democracy is imperiled, and an unstable set of political rivals skirmish over dwindling resources.

:lol5::lol5:

That was good, i needed that!:vap_smiley:

[FreshNugz]

what happened to the country that gave power back to the people after WWII? why did it switch to wars of aggression, concentration camps, torture chambers, and rape rooms? perhaps american supremacy wouldn't be fading at this point if uncle sam hadn't lost his moral compass a few decades ago...

what happened was an attempt to draft a post cold war foreign policy. The one which was adopted was that of American global hegemony...three parts: dissuasion, reassurance, and non-proliferation.
dissuasion is building up the army and country so vastly that nobody could even dream of attacking, knowing their fate...
reassurance is getting other nations to put down their weapons, and in return for not questioning american global hegemony, they are offered protection by the US(militarily, economically...depends on "how good you were")
finally, non-proliferation is designed to keep nations from building any nuclear weaponry which could be used elsewhere...the US doesn't want to have to showdown with some third world nation to deter its use of nukes. and it is designed to keep regional stability. hence we saw the destruction of a syrian "nuclear base" in 2006. thats an example of the non-proliferation tenet of the strategy for american global hegemony.
Basically the US is a parent which keeps all its kids(the rest of the world) from doing stuff it doesn't like.
Source for this info is "The American Way of Strategy" by Michael Lind. Give it a read....

p.s. economically, america is FAR from the top. and it will only continue to decline.
sorry to bear bad news.

[thcbongman]

what happened to the country that gave power back to the people after WWII? why did it switch to wars of aggression, concentration camps, torture chambers, and rape rooms? perhaps american supremacy wouldn't be fading at this point if uncle sam hadn't lost his moral compass a few decades ago...economically, america is still on top but the serfs lost respect for their feudal lord and his war chest is bleeding gold coins

Moral compass doesn't even matter when it comes to World Domination. Caesar? Napoleon? Alexander The Great? Do you think any of these leaders gave a damn about morality? Absolutely not. They had a hunger for power, which is why they became phenominal, powerful leaders.

Infact I wish America has a more decadent moral compass, we can stop subsidizing defense for other countries, since these serfs accepts gifts and continue to bitch. Let them drown in arabs, not our problem.

[maladroit]

great idea! that would save the federal government about $25 billion in foreign aid...the serfs would have less to bitch about if the federal government didn't spend 10 times that much to beat on foreign countries and interfere in their politics/economies...then the feds would have even more money to spend on stopping american serfs from bitching...a receding tide lowers all bitching!

[thcbongman]

great idea! that would save the federal government about $25 billion in foreign aid...the serfs would have less to bitch about if the federal government didn't spend 10 times that much to beat on foreign countries and interfere in their politics/economies...then the feds would have even more money to spend on stopping american serfs from bitching...a receding tide lowers all bitching!

If war wasn't profitable, no one would go to war. America will make far more off the war in 100 years when you consider job creation + security, growth, reconstruction contracts and securing oil resources. It's where all the money is at, for every government defense job created, there are 4-5 more created from the private sector to support the effort. America economy has been vastly dependent on the military & law enforcement and the cracks are starting to show. America has to change it's overall philosophy in my opinion.

[overgrowthegovt]

I am not saying America is perfect as no country is, but to call America an evil empire? Here is another question for you all. If it had been the USA which collapsed in the early 90's instead of the Soviet Union do you think they would have been a better world leader? Would their tanks have stopped in Germany or continue to press forward?

The Soviet Union was worse, but really, the shit America's pulled with Haiti, Cuba, Iran, the Congo, backing the Indonesian slaughter in East Timor...there's a very long list of very, very ugly deeds undertaken for the natiomal interest. And the U.S. tanks have pressed forward, on an economic level at least, throughout the entire world.

[GoldenBoy812]

If war wasn't profitable, no one would go to war. America will make far more off the war in 100 years when you consider job creation + security, growth, reconstruction contracts and securing oil resources.

Historically, the nation on the winning side will demand some sort of war reperations to counter balance the gdp that flows out of the US economy and into the country that has been defeated.

Until recently, the dominating country has done very little to rebuild the conquered country.


It's where all the money is at, for every government defense job created, there are 4-5 more created from the private sector to support the effort. America economy has been vastly dependent on the military & law enforcement and the cracks are starting to show. America has to change it's overall philosophy in my opinion.

America's economy, in my opinion, is heavily dependent on consumption, and requires up to a certain point (which we have crossed) debt financing to keep up production. Using credit to purchase a big ticket item (such as a car or hot tub) is not a bad thing, its using credit to purchase gasoline, food, and entertainment is very bad!

Its the periods of inactivity that allow its military industrial complex to help prosperity flourish. After the Persian Gulf War, the satalite frequencies used were then purchased via private investment, and were turned into what we now call cell phones:vap_smiley:

[apocolips31]

Exactly just like I said, America is NOT perfect. It has it's dark side like most countries, but for a country that can invade just about whoever it wants and take them over. We are doing a good job as world leader. Most countries probably would have tried to take over the world by now, in the military sense not economically. Which is understandable, who doesn't want to have a strong economy and pull their people out of poverty?

[thcbongman]

Historically, the nation on the winning side will demand some sort of war reperations to counter balance the gdp that flows out of the US economy and into the country that has been defeated.

Until recently, the dominating country has done very little to rebuild the conquered country.



America's economy, in my opinion, is heavily dependent on consumption, and requires up to a certain point (which we have crossed) debt financing to keep up production. Using credit to purchase a big ticket item (such as a car or hot tub) is not a bad thing, its using credit to purchase gasoline, food, and entertainment is very bad!

Its the periods of inactivity that allow its military industrial complex to help prosperity flourish. After the Persian Gulf War, the satalite frequencies used were then purchased via private investment, and were turned into what we now call cell phones:vap_smiley:

Of course the winning side should demand some kind of reparations. You roll the dice on war, you win, you gets all the awards, you lose, well you are screwed. Everyone can talk about the bad morality behind the Iraq war, but which country is powerful enough that they'd threaten the US in any form whether diplomatically, economically or military? No one.

One of these reparations is economic favortism. The war maybe have been decided unilaterally but every country apart of the multi-national coalition wanted a piece of the pie. Just to have a western presence in the western world is untapped economic potential, although risky because it been a worn-torn region for a couple of centuries. Right now it's too dangerous to foster a free market and given the history of the middle east, there's a culture of religious oppression that tainted the mentality of millions upon millions. This is GWB we speak of and too optimistic on his prognosis.

The reconstruction efforts in a scale of things are minimal. However for a country, those reconstruction efforts became adapted and perhaps the most modern thing that exists. A great example is Ethiopia and the city Addis Ababa. The short-time the Italians colonized, they built buildings, roads and helped to modernize Ethiopia a bit. Occupiers can do great things even during the war. It's just distracted by news of another car bombing.

I agree with you, consumerism has the greatest role to play in this. When the US continues perpetual growth, an average of 3% a year and keeps growing, so does the military budget. Every year, it has seen an increase. Whether we collect in the end does not matter because military money is being pumped into the economy constantly and it trickles through the economy. Ordinarily it's hardly a dent in the economic engine, but when you put out an effort such as war? Which require logistics, coordination and deployment of soldiers? Those are costly efforts, which require not only efforts from the military, but the private industry as well. When the US went into Iraq, that's the day the stock market turned around, and continued to grow for a few more years. The money is flowing.

Now it's drying up. And I disagree, they are a vast amount of projects that the government and private industries work together for innovation regardless of whether military engagements are active or not. There's an entire industry dedicated to it and they'll continue to be responsible for innovation such as cell phones. Private industry tends to go at it alone until they realize they should not utilize their own capital solely, but rather suck off the government's tit. That's what telecoms figured out. Hey it's happening for banks too now, isn't it?

[overgrowthegovt]

Exactly just like I said, America is NOT perfect. It has it's dark side like most countries, but for a country that can invade just about whoever it wants and take them over. We are doing a good job as world leader. Most countries probably would have tried to take over the world by now, in the military sense not economically. Which is understandable, who doesn't want to have a strong economy and pull their people out of poverty?

Viciously fucking over any country or leader not on par with the American vision of an economic world order is not "doing a good job". For all its talk of freedom and democracy, the U.S. backs dictators who are in their interest (i.e. Batista), overthrows elected leaders with a different agenda (i.e. Lumumba, Mosaddeq, Aristide), keeps the Israeli boot firmly on the Palestinian face, financially backed the East Timor slaughter, keeps DEA offices everywhere to ensure their moral panic drug agenda is being followed, etc.

I do not call that a "good job";I call that a disgrace. The idea that any other country would be more brutal is just American propaganda concerning the virtues of its dark global economic despotism.

[apocolips31]

Viciously fucking over any country or leader not on par with the American vision of an economic world order is not "doing a good job". For all its talk of freedom and democracy, the U.S. backs dictators who are in their interest (i.e. Batista), overthrows elected leaders with a different agenda (i.e. Lumumba, Mosaddeq, Aristide), keeps the Israeli boot firmly on the Palestinian face, financially backed the East Timor slaughter, keeps DEA offices everywhere to ensure their moral panic drug agenda is being followed, etc.

I do not call that a "good job";I call that a disgrace. The idea that any other country would be more brutal is just American propaganda concerning the virtues of its dark global economic despotism.
You said it your self the Soviet Union was worse and would be worse if it was the world leader. Tell me which country/empire in world history held the power the USA does and did a better job? I never said we didn't do anything wrong we did many things wrong but, we are by FAR the best world leader to come around. Things are never going to be perfect but, it isn't as bad as it could be.

[overgrowthegovt]

You said it your self the Soviet Union was worse and would be worse if it was the world leader. Tell me which country/empire in world history held the power the USA does and did a better job? I never said we didn't do anything wrong we did many things wrong but, we are by FAR the best world leader to come around. Things are never going to be perfect but, it isn't as bad as it could be.

Let's go back to Britain in the 1920s, at the height of the British Empire...how were they any worse? They pulled all kinds of ugly shit, but no uglier, I would argue, than East Timor, Haiti, Cuba, Vietnam, etc.

Regardless of who wields supreme power, the world cannot function in a fair way if one superpower's agenda is the standard to which everybody is held.

[apocolips31]

I agree the way we conduct our selves is not the way it should be but, it is the best way so far. For a country with such power at it's disposal we are doing a pretty good job to control our selves. Also I wouldn't compare great Britain then to the USA now as they couldn't even defeat France.... Yes they were the number one but, not in such a way as the USA is. To put things into perspective,"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" So for having absolute power are doing the best so far.There has never been a hyper power before. I think we are going to just have to agree to disagree at this point. As this is going around in circles.

[overgrowthegovt]

I agree the way we conduct our selves is not the way it should be but, it is the best way so far. For a country with such power at it's disposal we are doing a pretty good job to control our selves. Also I wouldn't compare great Britain then to the USA now as they couldn't even defeat France.... Yes they were the number one but, not in such a way as the USA is. To put things into perspective,"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" So for having absolute power are doing the best so far.There has never been a hyper power before. I think we are going to just have to agree to disagree at this point. As this is going around in circles.

No, there's never been a HYPER-power before now, and I really, really hope there isn't one for much longer. But as you say, if there's never been one before, how can you possibly compare? Who's to say Norway wouldn't be less of an asshole if they ruled the world, or someone? That's like saying I'm the best son my dad ever had (I'm an only child).

[tmayu2]

zeitgeistmovie.com watch it its political and shit, sheds some light where no one else dares to go

[apocolips31]

No, there's never been a HYPER-power before now, and I really, really hope there isn't one for much longer. But as you say, if there's never been one before, how can you possibly compare? Who's to say Norway wouldn't be less of an asshole if they ruled the world, or someone? That's like saying I'm the best son my dad ever had (I'm an only child).

Like I said in previous posts, out of countries that actually have a chance to become a world leader. As I know morally we are not the best but, out of the mix yes we are.

[GoldenBoy812]

Now it's drying up. And I disagree, they are a vast amount of projects that the government and private industries work together for innovation regardless of whether military engagements are active or not. There's an entire industry dedicated to it and they'll continue to be responsible for innovation such as cell phones. Private industry tends to go at it alone until they realize they should not utilize their own capital solely, but rather suck off the government's tit. That's what telecoms figured out. Hey it's happening for banks too now, isn't it?

Rockets, fission, fiber optics, satellite communication, the internet, and highway systems are absolute pillars of our advanced society. All of which came by way of military R&D funding.

[thcbongman]

Rockets, fission, fiber optics, satellite communication, the internet, and highway systems are absolute pillars of our advanced society. All of which came by way of military R&D funding.

I see your point that many of these developments would've been much harder or non-existant without Military R&D funding. I find it interesting about highways, I knew highways are given first priority to military personnel but I didn't think the funding for the original interstate design came directly from the military. Tp think the military industrial complex is such a necessary evil in terms of innovation....